A Resource-Constrained Optimal Control Model for Crackdown on Illicit Drug Markets

A. Baveja, G. Feichtinger, R.F. Hartl, J.L. Haunschmied, P.M. Kort

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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Abstract

In this paper we present a budget-constrained optimal control model aimed at finding the optimal enforcement profile for a street-level, illicit drug crackdown operation. The objective is defined as minimizing the number of dealers dealing at the end of the crackdown operation, using this as a surrogate measure of residual criminal activity. Analytical results show that optimal enforcement policy will invariably use the budget resources completely. Numerical analysis using realistic estimates of parameters shows that crackdowns normally lead to significant results within a matter of a week, and if they do not, it is likely that they will be offering very limited success even if pursued for a much longer duration. We also show that a ramp-up enforcement policy will be most effective in collapsing a drug market if the drug dealers are risk-seeking, and the policy of using maximum enforcement as early as possible is usually optimal in the case when the dealers are risk averse or risk neutral. The work then goes on to argue that the underlying model has some general characteristics that are both reasonable and intuitive, allowing possible applications in focussed, local enforcement operations on other similar illegal activities.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherMicroeconomics
Number of pages26
Volume1999-85
Publication statusPublished - 1999

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume1999-85

Fingerprint

Optimal control
Resources
Illicit drugs
Enforcement
Dealers
Drugs
Numerical analysis
Risk seeking
Risk-averse

Keywords

  • crackdown enforcement
  • illicit drug markets
  • optimal control

Cite this

Baveja, A., Feichtinger, G., Hartl, R. F., Haunschmied, J. L., & Kort, P. M. (1999). A Resource-Constrained Optimal Control Model for Crackdown on Illicit Drug Markets. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 1999-85). Tilburg: Microeconomics.
Baveja, A. ; Feichtinger, G. ; Hartl, R.F. ; Haunschmied, J.L. ; Kort, P.M. / A Resource-Constrained Optimal Control Model for Crackdown on Illicit Drug Markets. Tilburg : Microeconomics, 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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abstract = "In this paper we present a budget-constrained optimal control model aimed at finding the optimal enforcement profile for a street-level, illicit drug crackdown operation. The objective is defined as minimizing the number of dealers dealing at the end of the crackdown operation, using this as a surrogate measure of residual criminal activity. Analytical results show that optimal enforcement policy will invariably use the budget resources completely. Numerical analysis using realistic estimates of parameters shows that crackdowns normally lead to significant results within a matter of a week, and if they do not, it is likely that they will be offering very limited success even if pursued for a much longer duration. We also show that a ramp-up enforcement policy will be most effective in collapsing a drug market if the drug dealers are risk-seeking, and the policy of using maximum enforcement as early as possible is usually optimal in the case when the dealers are risk averse or risk neutral. The work then goes on to argue that the underlying model has some general characteristics that are both reasonable and intuitive, allowing possible applications in focussed, local enforcement operations on other similar illegal activities.",
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Baveja, A, Feichtinger, G, Hartl, RF, Haunschmied, JL & Kort, PM 1999 'A Resource-Constrained Optimal Control Model for Crackdown on Illicit Drug Markets' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 1999-85, Microeconomics, Tilburg.

A Resource-Constrained Optimal Control Model for Crackdown on Illicit Drug Markets. / Baveja, A.; Feichtinger, G.; Hartl, R.F.; Haunschmied, J.L.; Kort, P.M.

Tilburg : Microeconomics, 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 1999-85).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

TY - UNPB

T1 - A Resource-Constrained Optimal Control Model for Crackdown on Illicit Drug Markets

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AU - Feichtinger, G.

AU - Hartl, R.F.

AU - Haunschmied, J.L.

AU - Kort, P.M.

N1 - Pagination: 26

PY - 1999

Y1 - 1999

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AB - In this paper we present a budget-constrained optimal control model aimed at finding the optimal enforcement profile for a street-level, illicit drug crackdown operation. The objective is defined as minimizing the number of dealers dealing at the end of the crackdown operation, using this as a surrogate measure of residual criminal activity. Analytical results show that optimal enforcement policy will invariably use the budget resources completely. Numerical analysis using realistic estimates of parameters shows that crackdowns normally lead to significant results within a matter of a week, and if they do not, it is likely that they will be offering very limited success even if pursued for a much longer duration. We also show that a ramp-up enforcement policy will be most effective in collapsing a drug market if the drug dealers are risk-seeking, and the policy of using maximum enforcement as early as possible is usually optimal in the case when the dealers are risk averse or risk neutral. The work then goes on to argue that the underlying model has some general characteristics that are both reasonable and intuitive, allowing possible applications in focussed, local enforcement operations on other similar illegal activities.

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Baveja A, Feichtinger G, Hartl RF, Haunschmied JL, Kort PM. A Resource-Constrained Optimal Control Model for Crackdown on Illicit Drug Markets. Tilburg: Microeconomics. 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper).