A review of applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research

Daniel W. Heck; Udo Boehm; Florian Böing-Messing; P Bürkner; K Derks; Z Dienes; Q Fu; X Gu; Diana Karimova; H Kiers; I Klugkist; R. M. Kuiper; M.D. Lee; Roger Leenders; H.J. Leplaa; M Linde; A Ly; Marlyne Meijerink; M. Moerbeek; Joris Mulder; B Palfi; F Schönbrodt; J Tendeiro; D van den Bergh; C. van Lissa; D van Ravenzwaaij; W Vanpaemel; E Wagenmakers; D.R.  Williams; M Zondervan-Zwijnenburg; H. Hoijtink

doi:10.1037/met0000454

A review of applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research

Daniel W. Heck, Udo Boehm, Florian Böing-Messing, P Bürkner, K Derks, Z Dienes, Q Fu, X Gu, Diana Karimova, H Kiers, I Klugkist, R. M. Kuiper, M.D. Lee, Roger Leenders, H.J. Leplaa, M Linde, A Ly, Marlyne Meijerink, M. Moerbeek, Joris MulderB Palfi, F Schönbrodt, J Tendeiro, D van den Bergh, C. van Lissa, D van Ravenzwaaij, W Vanpaemel, E Wagenmakers, D.R. Williams, M Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, H. Hoijtink

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Abstract

The last 25 years have shown a steady increase in attention for the Bayes factor as a tool for hypothesis evaluation and model selection. The present review highlights the potential of the Bayes factor in psychological research. We discuss six types of applications: Bayesian evaluation of point null, interval, and informative hypotheses, Bayesian evidence synthesis, Bayesian variable selection and model averaging, and Bayesian evaluation of cognitive models. We elaborate what each application entails, give illustrative examples, and provide an overview of key references and software with links to other applications. The paper is concluded with a discussion of the opportunities and pitfalls of Bayes factor applications and a sketch of corresponding future research lines.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	558-579
Journal	Psychological Methods
Volume	28
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000454
Publication status	Published - 2023

Keywords

Bayes factor
evidence
hypothesis testing
model selection
theory evaluation

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10.1037/met0000454

heck2021reviewAccepted author manuscript, 517 KB

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Heck, D. W., Boehm, U., Böing-Messing, F., Bürkner, P., Derks, K., Dienes, Z., Fu, Q., Gu, X., Karimova, D., Kiers, H., Klugkist, I., Kuiper, R. M., Lee, M. D., Leenders, R., Leplaa, H. J., Linde, M., Ly, A., Meijerink, M., Moerbeek, M., ... Hoijtink, H. (2023). A review of applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research. Psychological Methods, 28(3), 558-579. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000454

@article{b4e4af6800f5420c810d705586513c05,

title = "A review of applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research",

abstract = "The last 25 years have shown a steady increase in attention for the Bayes factor as a tool for hypothesis evaluation and model selection. The present review highlights the potential of the Bayes factor in psychological research. We discuss six types of applications: Bayesian evaluation of point null, interval, and informative hypotheses, Bayesian evidence synthesis, Bayesian variable selection and model averaging, and Bayesian evaluation of cognitive models. We elaborate what each application entails, give illustrative examples, and provide an overview of key references and software with links to other applications. The paper is concluded with a discussion of the opportunities and pitfalls of Bayes factor applications and a sketch of corresponding future research lines.",

keywords = "Bayes factor, evidence, hypothesis testing, model selection, theory evaluation",

author = "Heck, {Daniel W.} and Udo Boehm and Florian B{\"o}ing-Messing and P B{\"u}rkner and K Derks and Z Dienes and Q Fu and X Gu and Diana Karimova and H Kiers and I Klugkist and Kuiper, {R. M.} and M.D. Lee and Roger Leenders and H.J. Leplaa and M Linde and A Ly and Marlyne Meijerink and M. Moerbeek and Joris Mulder and B Palfi and F Sch{\"o}nbrodt and J Tendeiro and {van den Bergh}, D and {van Lissa}, C. and {van Ravenzwaaij}, D and W Vanpaemel and E Wagenmakers and D.R. Williams and M Zondervan-Zwijnenburg and H. Hoijtink",

note = "Funding Information: The last author was supported by a fellowship from the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIAS-KNAW). ",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1037/met0000454",

language = "English",

volume = "28",

pages = "558--579",

journal = "Psychological Methods",

issn = "1082-989X",

publisher = "American Psychological Association",

number = "3",

}

Heck, DW, Boehm, U, Böing-Messing, F, Bürkner, P, Derks, K, Dienes, Z, Fu, Q, Gu, X, Karimova, D, Kiers, H, Klugkist, I, Kuiper, RM, Lee, MD, Leenders, R, Leplaa, HJ, Linde, M, Ly, A, Meijerink, M, Moerbeek, M, Mulder, J, Palfi, B, Schönbrodt, F, Tendeiro, J, van den Bergh, D, van Lissa, C, van Ravenzwaaij, D, Vanpaemel, W, Wagenmakers, E, Williams, DR, Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, M & Hoijtink, H 2023, 'A review of applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research', Psychological Methods, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 558-579. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000454

TY - JOUR

T1 - A review of applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research

AU - Heck, Daniel W.

AU - Boehm, Udo

AU - Böing-Messing, Florian

AU - Bürkner, P

AU - Derks, K

AU - Dienes, Z

AU - Fu, Q

AU - Gu, X

AU - Karimova, Diana

AU - Kiers, H

AU - Klugkist, I

AU - Kuiper, R. M.

AU - Lee, M.D.

AU - Leenders, Roger

AU - Leplaa, H.J.

AU - Linde, M

AU - Ly, A

AU - Meijerink, Marlyne

AU - Moerbeek, M.

AU - Mulder, Joris

AU - Palfi, B

AU - Schönbrodt, F

AU - Tendeiro, J

AU - van den Bergh, D

AU - van Lissa, C.

AU - van Ravenzwaaij, D

AU - Vanpaemel, W

AU - Wagenmakers, E

AU - Williams, D.R.

AU - Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, M

AU - Hoijtink, H.

N1 - Funding Information: The last author was supported by a fellowship from the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences (NIAS-KNAW).

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - The last 25 years have shown a steady increase in attention for the Bayes factor as a tool for hypothesis evaluation and model selection. The present review highlights the potential of the Bayes factor in psychological research. We discuss six types of applications: Bayesian evaluation of point null, interval, and informative hypotheses, Bayesian evidence synthesis, Bayesian variable selection and model averaging, and Bayesian evaluation of cognitive models. We elaborate what each application entails, give illustrative examples, and provide an overview of key references and software with links to other applications. The paper is concluded with a discussion of the opportunities and pitfalls of Bayes factor applications and a sketch of corresponding future research lines.

AB - The last 25 years have shown a steady increase in attention for the Bayes factor as a tool for hypothesis evaluation and model selection. The present review highlights the potential of the Bayes factor in psychological research. We discuss six types of applications: Bayesian evaluation of point null, interval, and informative hypotheses, Bayesian evidence synthesis, Bayesian variable selection and model averaging, and Bayesian evaluation of cognitive models. We elaborate what each application entails, give illustrative examples, and provide an overview of key references and software with links to other applications. The paper is concluded with a discussion of the opportunities and pitfalls of Bayes factor applications and a sketch of corresponding future research lines.

KW - Bayes factor

KW - evidence

KW - hypothesis testing

KW - model selection

KW - theory evaluation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85130622750&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1037/met0000454

DO - 10.1037/met0000454

M3 - Review article

SN - 1082-989X

VL - 28

SP - 558

EP - 579

JO - Psychological Methods

JF - Psychological Methods

IS - 3

ER -

A review of applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research

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Keywords

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