A state-space relational event modeling approach for learning dynamic social interaction behavior

Relational event models (REMs) are the primary choice for the analysis of relational-event network data. However, the standard REM assumes static parameters, which hinders the modeling of time-varying dynamics. This assumption might be too restrictive in real-life scenarios, making a model that allows for time-varying parameters more valuable. We introduce a state-space extension of the relational event model as a way to tackle this problem. The model has three main attributes. First, it provides a statistical framework of the temporal change of the parameters. Second, it enables the forecasting of future parameter values (which can be utilized to simulate new networks that can account for temporal dynamics in out-of-sample predictions). Third, it requires smaller data structures to be loaded into computer memory compared to the standard REM; this makes the model easily scalable to large networks. We conduct empirical analyses on bike-sharing data, corporate communications, and interactions among socio-political actors to illustrate model usage and applicability.