A Value-Added Trade Perspective on Recent Patterns in World Trade

Paul Veenendaal; Hugo Rojas-Romagosa; Arjan Lejour; Henk Kox

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2872071

A Value-Added Trade Perspective on Recent Patterns in World Trade

Paul Veenendaal
, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
, Arjan Lejour
, Henk Kox

Research output: Working paper › Other research output

Abstract

Our contribution uses trade in value added statistics to assess the causes of the recent world trade slowdown. We conclude that world trade elasticity has fallen due to a combination of regional and cyclical changes during the economic crisis. A cyclical factor is the lower cumulative trade intensity of consumer goods compared to investment goods. We find no evidence for a structural trade slowdown. In contrast, foreign value-added shares in final exports in Europe and East Asia are trending towards new peaks. The regional changes are caused by an increase of the total import share for regions with a low trade elasticity and decreased import elasticities in some regions.

Original language	English
Publisher	SSRN
Number of pages	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2872071
Publication status	Published - 2016

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

Keywords

trade in value added
world trade
international business cycle

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10.2139/ssrn.2872071

Cite this

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abstract = "Our contribution uses trade in value added statistics to assess the causes of the recent world trade slowdown. We conclude that world trade elasticity has fallen due to a combination of regional and cyclical changes during the economic crisis. A cyclical factor is the lower cumulative trade intensity of consumer goods compared to investment goods. We find no evidence for a structural trade slowdown. In contrast, foreign value-added shares in final exports in Europe and East Asia are trending towards new peaks. The regional changes are caused by an increase of the total import share for regions with a low trade elasticity and decreased import elasticities in some regions.",

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AB - Our contribution uses trade in value added statistics to assess the causes of the recent world trade slowdown. We conclude that world trade elasticity has fallen due to a combination of regional and cyclical changes during the economic crisis. A cyclical factor is the lower cumulative trade intensity of consumer goods compared to investment goods. We find no evidence for a structural trade slowdown. In contrast, foreign value-added shares in final exports in Europe and East Asia are trending towards new peaks. The regional changes are caused by an increase of the total import share for regions with a low trade elasticity and decreased import elasticities in some regions.

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KW - international business cycle

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M3 - Working paper

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PB - SSRN

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A Value-Added Trade Perspective on Recent Patterns in World Trade

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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