Adapt or perish? How parties respond to party system saturation in 21 Western democracies, 1945-2011

Marc van de Wardt, Arjen van Witteloostuijn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

This study examines whether and how parties adapt to party system saturation. A party system is oversaturated when a higher effective number of parties contests elections than predicted. Previous research has shown that parties are more likely to exit when party systems are oversaturated. We ex-amine whether parties will adapt by increasing the nicheness of their policy platform, by forming electoral alliances, or by merging. Based on time series analyses of 522 parties, 357 elections in 21 estab-lished Western democracies between 1945 and 2011, we find that parties are more likely to enter and less likely to leave electoral alliances if party system saturation increases. Additionally, a small share of older parties will merge. Hence, there are limits regarding the adaptive capacities of parties to their environments, which has important implications for the literature on party (system) change and mod-els of electoral competition.
Original languageEnglish
JournalBritish Journal of Political Science
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2019

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party system
democracy
electoral alliance
election
system change
time series

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title = "Adapt or perish? How parties respond to party system saturation in 21 Western democracies, 1945-2011",
abstract = "This study examines whether and how parties adapt to party system saturation. A party system is oversaturated when a higher effective number of parties contests elections than predicted. Previous research has shown that parties are more likely to exit when party systems are oversaturated. We ex-amine whether parties will adapt by increasing the nicheness of their policy platform, by forming electoral alliances, or by merging. Based on time series analyses of 522 parties, 357 elections in 21 estab-lished Western democracies between 1945 and 2011, we find that parties are more likely to enter and less likely to leave electoral alliances if party system saturation increases. Additionally, a small share of older parties will merge. Hence, there are limits regarding the adaptive capacities of parties to their environments, which has important implications for the literature on party (system) change and mod-els of electoral competition.",
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year = "2019",
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Adapt or perish? How parties respond to party system saturation in 21 Western democracies, 1945-2011. / van de Wardt, Marc; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen.

In: British Journal of Political Science, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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AU - van Witteloostuijn, Arjen

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AB - This study examines whether and how parties adapt to party system saturation. A party system is oversaturated when a higher effective number of parties contests elections than predicted. Previous research has shown that parties are more likely to exit when party systems are oversaturated. We ex-amine whether parties will adapt by increasing the nicheness of their policy platform, by forming electoral alliances, or by merging. Based on time series analyses of 522 parties, 357 elections in 21 estab-lished Western democracies between 1945 and 2011, we find that parties are more likely to enter and less likely to leave electoral alliances if party system saturation increases. Additionally, a small share of older parties will merge. Hence, there are limits regarding the adaptive capacities of parties to their environments, which has important implications for the literature on party (system) change and mod-els of electoral competition.

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JO - British Journal of Political Science

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