Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection

Krzysztof Postek, Dick den Hertog, J. Kind, Chris Pustjens

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

Abstract

Flood protection is of major importance to many flood-prone regions and involves substantial investment and maintenance costs. Modern flood risk management requires often to determine a cost-efficient protection strategy, i.e., one with lowest possible long run cost and satisfying flood protection standards imposed by the regulator throughout the entire planning horizon. There are two challenges that complicate the modeling: (i) uncertainty - many of the important parameters on which the strategies are based (e.g. the sea level
rise) are uncertain, and will be known only in the future, and (ii) adjustability - decisions implemented at later time stages need to adapt to the realized uncertainty values. We develop a new mathematical model addressing both, based on recent advances in integer robust optimization and we implement it on the example of the Rhine Estuary - Drechtsteden area in the Netherlands. Our approach shows, among others, that (i) considering 40% uncertainty about the sea level rise leads to solution with a less than 10% increase in the total cost (ii) solutions taking the uncertainty into account are cheaper in the long run if the `bad scenarios' for the uncertainty materialize, even if the `optimistic solutions' are allowed to be fixed later on (iii) the optimal here-and-now investment decisions change when uncertainty and adjustability are considered.
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherOperations research
Number of pages24
Volume2016-038
Publication statusPublished - 21 Sep 2016

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume2016-038

Fingerprint

cost
estuary
flood protection
modeling
decision
sea level rise
sea
planning
parameter
risk management

Keywords

  • robust optimization
  • flood protection
  • adjustability
  • adaptivity

Cite this

Postek, K., den Hertog, D., Kind, J., & Pustjens, C. (2016). Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection. (CentER Discussion Paper ; Vol. 2016-038). Tilburg: Operations research.
Postek, Krzysztof ; den Hertog, Dick ; Kind, J. ; Pustjens, Chris. / Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection. Tilburg : Operations research, 2016. (CentER Discussion Paper ).
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Postek, K, den Hertog, D, Kind, J & Pustjens, C 2016 'Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection' CentER Discussion Paper , vol. 2016-038, Operations research, Tilburg.

Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection. / Postek, Krzysztof; den Hertog, Dick; Kind, J.; Pustjens, Chris.

Tilburg : Operations research, 2016. (CentER Discussion Paper ; Vol. 2016-038).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

TY - UNPB

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AU - Postek, Krzysztof

AU - den Hertog, Dick

AU - Kind, J.

AU - Pustjens, Chris

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Y1 - 2016/9/21

N2 - Flood protection is of major importance to many flood-prone regions and involves substantial investment and maintenance costs. Modern flood risk management requires often to determine a cost-efficient protection strategy, i.e., one with lowest possible long run cost and satisfying flood protection standards imposed by the regulator throughout the entire planning horizon. There are two challenges that complicate the modeling: (i) uncertainty - many of the important parameters on which the strategies are based (e.g. the sea levelrise) are uncertain, and will be known only in the future, and (ii) adjustability - decisions implemented at later time stages need to adapt to the realized uncertainty values. We develop a new mathematical model addressing both, based on recent advances in integer robust optimization and we implement it on the example of the Rhine Estuary - Drechtsteden area in the Netherlands. Our approach shows, among others, that (i) considering 40% uncertainty about the sea level rise leads to solution with a less than 10% increase in the total cost (ii) solutions taking the uncertainty into account are cheaper in the long run if the `bad scenarios' for the uncertainty materialize, even if the `optimistic solutions' are allowed to be fixed later on (iii) the optimal here-and-now investment decisions change when uncertainty and adjustability are considered.

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Postek K, den Hertog D, Kind J, Pustjens C. Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection. Tilburg: Operations research. 2016 Sep 21. (CentER Discussion Paper ).