An indirect estimate of the incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

JJ Barendregt*, C.A. Baan, L Bonneux

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Our goal was to estimate non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus incidence in the Netherlands in the absence of equivocal empirical data. Incidence can be expressed as a function of age, sex, prevalence, and mortality. We obtained prevalence data from a study that pooled existing prevalence estimates. We calculated diabetes-related mortality using relative risks on all-cause mortality. Sensitivity for the rate of excess mortality was determined using the 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of the relative risks. The estimated incidence increases exponentially with age, with a doubling time of 10 years for men and 9 years for women. The rate increases from 8.1 per 10,000 (95% CI = 7.7-8.8) for men ages 40-44 years and 7.0 (95% CI = 6.8-8.0) for women to 79.7 per 10,000 (95% Cl = 69.5-90.9) for men ages 75-79 years and 85.8 (95% Cl = 80.6-91.0) for women. Wizen empirical estimates of incidence are largely lacking, the methodology described offers a useful alternative, in particular for the assessment of potential intervention effects.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)274-279
Number of pages6
JournalCancer Epidemiology
Volume11
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2000
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • diabetes mellitus
  • incidence
  • age
  • international comparison
  • gender
  • models
  • IMPAIRED GLUCOSE-TOLERANCE
  • PREVALENCE
  • POPULATION
  • NETHERLANDS
  • NIDDM
  • AGE
  • HYPERINSULINEMIA
  • COMPLICATIONS
  • MORTALITY
  • HEALTH

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