This article assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.
Cockx, B., & Picchio, M. (2012). Are short-lived jobs stepping stones to long-lasting jobs? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(5), 646-675. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00668.x