Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for expected shortfall with acceptable low levels have a better performance than tests for value-at-risk in realistic financial sample sizes.We propose a way to determine multiplication factors, and find that the resulting regulatory capital scheme using expected shortfall compares favorably to the current Basle Accord backtesting scheme.