Bayes factor hypothesis testing in meta-analyses: Practical advantages and methodological considerations

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Abstract

Bayesian hypothesis testing via Bayes factors offers a principled alternative to classical p-value methods in meta-analysis, particularly suited to its cumulative and sequential nature. Unlike p-values, Bayes factors allow for quantifying support both for and against the existence of an effect, facilitate ongoing evidence monitoring, and maintain coherent long-run behavior as additional studies are incorporated. Recent theoretical developments further show how Bayes factors can flexibly control Type I error rates through connections to e-value theory. Despite these advantages, their use remains limited in the meta-analytic literature. This paper provides a critical overview of their theoretical properties, methodological considerations—such as prior sensitivity—and practical advantages for evidence synthesis. Two illustrative applications are provided: one on statistical learning in individuals with language impairments, and another on seroma incidence following post-operative exercise in breast cancer patients. New tools supporting these methods are available in the open-source R package BFpack.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages35
JournalResearch Synthesis Methods
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - Dec 2025

Keywords

  • Bayes factor
  • (cumulative) meta-analyses
  • evidence synthesis
  • hypothesis testing
  • prior specification

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