Belief elicitation: A horse race among truth serums

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

We pit non-incentivised introspection against five revealed preference mechanisms (‘truth serums’) in the elicitation of beliefs in a simple two-player game. We measure the additivity, the predictive power for own behaviour and the accuracy of each method. Beliefs from incentivised methods are better predictors of participants' own behaviour compared to introspection. However, introspection performs equally well as the truth serums in terms of accuracy and additivity. We also find that correction for risk aversion improves the additivity of scoring rule belief reports.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2116-2135
JournalThe Economic Journal
Volume125
Issue number589
Early online date12 Sep 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2015

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Additivity
Serum
Scoring rules
Predictive power
Revealed preference
Risk aversion
Predictors

Cite this

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Belief elicitation : A horse race among truth serums. / Trautmann, S.T.; van de Kuilen, G.

In: The Economic Journal, Vol. 125, No. 589, 12.2015, p. 2116-2135.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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