Beyond quantified ignorance

rebuilding rationality without the bias bias

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

Abstract

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question shifts from being axiomatic/probabilistic in nature to being algorithmic/predictive in nature. These distinct views on rationality mirror fundamental and long-standing divisions in statistics.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherKiel Institute for the World Economy.
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Publication series

NameEconomics Discussion Papers
No.2019-25

Fingerprint

Rationality
Rebuilding
Ignorance
Optimality
Uncertainty
Normative Theory
Cognitive Theory
Natural World
Ecological Rationality
Fundamental
Statistics
Axiomatics

Cite this

Brighton, H. (2019). Beyond quantified ignorance: rebuilding rationality without the bias bias. (Economics Discussion Papers; No. 2019-25). Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Brighton, Henry. / Beyond quantified ignorance : rebuilding rationality without the bias bias. Kiel Institute for the World Economy., 2019. (Economics Discussion Papers; 2019-25).
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Brighton, H 2019 'Beyond quantified ignorance: rebuilding rationality without the bias bias' Economics Discussion Papers, no. 2019-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Beyond quantified ignorance : rebuilding rationality without the bias bias. / Brighton, Henry.

Kiel Institute for the World Economy., 2019. (Economics Discussion Papers; No. 2019-25).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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AB - If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question shifts from being axiomatic/probabilistic in nature to being algorithmic/predictive in nature. These distinct views on rationality mirror fundamental and long-standing divisions in statistics.

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Brighton H. Beyond quantified ignorance: rebuilding rationality without the bias bias. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. 2019. (Economics Discussion Papers; 2019-25).