Abstract
The art market is subject to frequent booms and busts in both prices and volume,
which are difficult to reconcile with models where agents are rational and
hold homogenous beliefs. This paper shows that (i) volume is mainly driven by
speculative transactions; (ii) positive price-volume correlation is pervasive across
art movements, and is larger for the most volatile segments of the art market; (iii)
volume predicts negative long-term returns, a relation that is statistically and economically large. Overall, our evidence supports the bubble model of Scheinkman
and Xiong (2003), which predicts that speculative trading can generate significant
price bubbles, even if trading costs are huge and leverage is impossible.
which are difficult to reconcile with models where agents are rational and
hold homogenous beliefs. This paper shows that (i) volume is mainly driven by
speculative transactions; (ii) positive price-volume correlation is pervasive across
art movements, and is larger for the most volatile segments of the art market; (iii)
volume predicts negative long-term returns, a relation that is statistically and economically large. Overall, our evidence supports the bubble model of Scheinkman
and Xiong (2003), which predicts that speculative trading can generate significant
price bubbles, even if trading costs are huge and leverage is impossible.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Place of Publication | Tilburg |
| Publisher | Finance |
| Number of pages | 49 |
| Volume | 2014-068 |
| Publication status | Published - 13 Nov 2014 |
Publication series
| Name | CentER Discussion Paper |
|---|---|
| Volume | 2014-068 |
Keywords
- art market
- bubbles
- return predictability
- auction
- trading volume