Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

J.H. Abbring, G. van den Berg, J.C. van Ours

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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Abstract

In this paper we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calender time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherEconometrics
Number of pages53
Volume1999-65
Publication statusPublished - 1999

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume1999-65

Fingerprint

Unemployment
Business cycles
Demographics
Exit
Duration dependence
Transition process
Economics
Current population survey
Unemployment dynamics
Interaction

Keywords

  • unemployment incidence
  • unemployment duration
  • unemployment compositon
  • business cycles
  • sorting
  • ranking

Cite this

Abbring, J. H., van den Berg, G., & van Ours, J. C. (1999). Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 1999-65). Tilburg: Econometrics.
Abbring, J.H. ; van den Berg, G. ; van Ours, J.C. / Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment. Tilburg : Econometrics, 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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Abbring, JH, van den Berg, G & van Ours, JC 1999 'Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 1999-65, Econometrics, Tilburg.

Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment. / Abbring, J.H.; van den Berg, G.; van Ours, J.C.

Tilburg : Econometrics, 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 1999-65).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

TY - UNPB

T1 - Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

AU - Abbring, J.H.

AU - van den Berg, G.

AU - van Ours, J.C.

N1 - Pagination: 53

PY - 1999

Y1 - 1999

N2 - In this paper we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calender time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.

AB - In this paper we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calender time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.

KW - unemployment incidence

KW - unemployment duration

KW - unemployment compositon

KW - business cycles

KW - sorting

KW - ranking

M3 - Discussion paper

VL - 1999-65

T3 - CentER Discussion Paper

BT - Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

PB - Econometrics

CY - Tilburg

ER -

Abbring JH, van den Berg G, van Ours JC. Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment. Tilburg: Econometrics. 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper).