Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

I. A. Van De Leemput; M. Wichers; A. O. J. Cramer; D. Borsboom; F. Tuerlinckx; P. Kuppens; E. H. Van Nes; W. Viechtbauer; E. J. Giltay; S. H. Aggen; C. Derom; N. Jacobs; K. S. Kendler; H. L. J. Van Der Maas; M. C. Neale; F. Peeters; E. Thiery; P. Zachar; M. Scheffer

doi:10.1073/pnas.1312114110

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

I. A. Van De Leemput, M. Wichers, A. O. J. Cramer, D. Borsboom, F. Tuerlinckx, P. Kuppens, E. H. Van Nes, W. Viechtbauer, E. J. Giltay, S. H. Aggen, C. Derom, N. Jacobs, K. S. Kendler, H. L. J. Van Der Maas, M. C. Neale, F. Peeters, E. Thiery, P. Zachar, M. Scheffer

Methodology and Statistics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

505 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	87-92
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	111
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312114110
Publication status	Published - 7 Jan 2014

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Van De Leemput, I. A., Wichers, M., Cramer, A. O. J., Borsboom, D., Tuerlinckx, F., Kuppens, P., Van Nes, E. H., Viechtbauer, W., Giltay, E. J., Aggen, S. H., Derom, C., Jacobs, N., Kendler, K. S., Van Der Maas, H. L. J., Neale, M. C., Peeters, F., Thiery, E., Zachar, P., & Scheffer, M. (2014). Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(1), 87-92. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312114110

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title = "Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression",

abstract = "About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.",

author = "{Van De Leemput}, {I. A.} and M. Wichers and Cramer, {A. O. J.} and D. Borsboom and F. Tuerlinckx and P. Kuppens and {Van Nes}, {E. H.} and W. Viechtbauer and Giltay, {E. J.} and Aggen, {S. H.} and C. Derom and N. Jacobs and Kendler, {K. S.} and {Van Der Maas}, {H. L. J.} and Neale, {M. C.} and F. Peeters and E. Thiery and P. Zachar and M. Scheffer",

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Van De Leemput, IA, Wichers, M, Cramer, AOJ, Borsboom, D, Tuerlinckx, F, Kuppens, P, Van Nes, EH, Viechtbauer, W, Giltay, EJ, Aggen, SH, Derom, C, Jacobs, N, Kendler, KS, Van Der Maas, HLJ, Neale, MC, Peeters, F, Thiery, E, Zachar, P & Scheffer, M 2014, 'Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 111, no. 1, pp. 87-92. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312114110

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T1 - Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

AU - Van De Leemput, I. A.

AU - Wichers, M.

AU - Cramer, A. O. J.

AU - Borsboom, D.

AU - Tuerlinckx, F.

AU - Kuppens, P.

AU - Van Nes, E. H.

AU - Viechtbauer, W.

AU - Giltay, E. J.

AU - Aggen, S. H.

AU - Derom, C.

AU - Jacobs, N.

AU - Kendler, K. S.

AU - Van Der Maas, H. L. J.

AU - Neale, M. C.

AU - Peeters, F.

AU - Thiery, E.

AU - Zachar, P.

AU - Scheffer, M.

PY - 2014/1/7

Y1 - 2014/1/7

N2 - About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

AB - About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

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DO - 10.1073/pnas.1312114110

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JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 1

ER -

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

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