Developing a clinical prediction rule for repeated consultations with functional somatic symptoms in primary care: A cohort study

Gea A Holtman*, Huibert Burger, Robert A Verheij, Hans Wouters, Marjolein Y Berger, Judith Gm Rosmalen, Peter Fm Verhaak

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Objectives
Patients who present in primary care with chronic functional somatic symptoms (FSS) have reduced quality of life and increased health care costs. Recognising these early is a challenge. The aim is to develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule for repeated consultations with FSS.

Design and setting
Records from the longitudinal population-based (‘Lifelines’) cohort study were linked to electronic health records from general practitioners (GPs).

Participants
We included patients consulting a GP with FSS within 1 year after baseline assessment in the Lifelines cohort.

Outcome measures
The outcome is repeated consultations with FSS, defined as ≥3 extra consultations for FSS within 1 year after the first consultation. Multivariable logistic regression, with bootstrapping for internal validation, was used to develop a risk prediction model from 14 literature-based predictors. Model discrimination, calibration and diagnostic accuracy were assessed.

Results
18 810 participants were identified by database linkage, of whom 2650 consulted a GP with FSS and 297 (11%) had ≥3 extra consultations. In the final multivariable model, older age, female sex, lack of healthy activity, presence of generalised anxiety disorder and higher number of GP consultations in the last year predicted repeated consultations. Discrimination after internal validation was 0.64 with a calibration slope of 0.95. The positive predictive value of patients with high scores on the model was 0.37 (0.29–0.47).

Conclusions
Several theoretically suggested predisposing and precipitating predictors, including neuroticism and stressful life events, surprisingly failed to contribute to our final model. Moreover, this model mostly included general predictors of increased risk of repeated consultations among patients with FSS. The model discrimination and positive predictive values were insufficient and preclude clinical implementation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e040730
Number of pages8
JournalBMJ Open
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Keywords

  • EVENTS
  • GENERAL-PRACTICE
  • ISSUES
  • LIST
  • MEDICALLY UNEXPLAINED SYMPTOMS
  • MODELS
  • THREATENING EXPERIENCES
  • VALIDITY
  • epidemiology
  • general medicine (see internal medicine)
  • primary care

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