Development and internal validation of prediction models for colorectal cancer survivors to estimate the 1-year risk of low health-related quality of life in multiple domains

D. Révész*, S.M.J. van Kuijk, F. Mols, F.J.B. van Duijnhoven, R.M. Winkels, H. Hoofs, IJ. Kant, L.J. Smits, S.O. Breukink, Lonneke van de Poll, E. Kampman, Sandra Beijer, M.P. Weijenberg, M.J.L. Bours

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
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Abstract

Background
Many colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors experience persisting health problems post-treatment that compromise their health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Prediction models are useful tools for identifying survivors at risk of low HRQoL in the future and for taking preventive action. Therefore, we developed prediction models for CRC survivors to estimate the 1-year risk of low HRQoL in multiple domains.

Methods
In 1458 CRC survivors, seven HRQoL domains (EORTC QLQ-C30: global QoL; cognitive, emotional, physical, role, social functioning; fatigue) were measured prospectively at study baseline and 1 year later. For each HRQoL domain, scores at 1-year follow-up were dichotomized into low versus normal/high. Separate multivariable logistic prediction models including biopsychosocial predictors measured at baseline were developed for the seven HRQoL domains, and internally validated using bootstrapping.

Results
Average time since diagnosis was 5 years at study baseline. Prediction models included both non-modifiable predictors (age, sex, socio-economic status, time since diagnosis, tumor stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, stoma, micturition, chemotherapy-related, stoma-related and gastrointestinal complaints, comorbidities, social inhibition/negative affectivity, and working status) and modifiable predictors (body mass index, physical activity, smoking, meat consumption, anxiety/depression, pain, and baseline fatigue and HRQoL scores). Internally validated models showed good calibration and discrimination (AUCs: 0.83–0.93).

Conclusions
The prediction models performed well for estimating 1-year risk of low HRQoL in seven domains. External validation is needed before models can be applied in practice.
Original languageEnglish
Article number54
Number of pages13
JournalBMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Volume20
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • BIAS
  • COMORBIDITY
  • Cancer survivors
  • Colorectal cancer
  • DIAGNOSIS TRIPOD
  • EUROPEAN-ORGANIZATION
  • EXPLANATION
  • INDIVIDUAL PROGNOSIS
  • Internal validation
  • LONG-TERM
  • Model development
  • OUTCOMES
  • PSYCHOSOCIAL INTERVENTIONS
  • Prediction models
  • QUESTIONNAIRE
  • Quality of life

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