Does Gender Expression Predict Economic Behavior, or Only Shape Beliefs About It?

Economic outcomes may depend not only on individuals’ preferences and traits but also on how they are perceived by others. Using two experiments, this paper examines how gender expression and biological sex shape beliefs about willingness to compete, self-confidence, risk preferences, and performance under competition, and whether these beliefs are reflected in behavior. The results show that beliefs about economic behavior are shaped more by gender expression than by biological sex, whereas biological sex is a stronger predictor of actual behavior than gender expression. While more feminine individuals are believed to be less competitive, less confident, more risk averse, and more negatively affected by competition, gender expression has no significant association with any of these preferences and traits. Biological sex, in contrast, is a stronger predictor of economic behavior, with suggestive evidence that female participants exhibit lower willingness to compete and lower self-confidence, but it affects beliefs only about risk preferences. These findings have important implications for hiring and promotion decisions, and they demonstrate the importance of incorporating broader dimensions of gender into analyses of labor market outcomes.