Does neighbourhood crime mediate the relationship between neighbourhood socioeconomic status and birth outcomes? An application of the mediational G-formula.

While the link between living in a low–socioeconomic status (SES) neighborhood and higher risk of adverse birth outcomes has been well established, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using the parametric g-formula, we assessed the role of neighborhood crime as a potential mediator of the relationship between neighborhood SES and birth outcomes using data on singleton births occurring in the Netherlands between 2010 and 2017 (n = 1,219,470). We estimated total and mediated effects of neighborhood SES on small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birth, low birth weight (LBW), and preterm birth (PTB) for 3 types of crime (violent crimes, crimes against property, and crimes against public order). The g-formula intervention settings corresponded to a hypothetical improvement in neighborhood SES. A hypothetical improvement in neighborhood SES resulted in a 6.6% (95% CI: 5.6, 7.5) reduction in the proportion of SGA birth, a 9.1% (95% CI: 7.6, 10.6) reduction in LBW, and a 5.8% (95% CI: 5.7, 6.2) decrease in PTB. Neighborhood crime jointly accounted for 28.1% and 8.6% of the total effects on SGA birth and LBW, respectively. For PTB, we found no evidence of mediation. The most relevant pathways were crimes against property and crimes against public order. The results indicate that neighborhood crime mediates a meaningful share of the relationship between neighborhood SES and birth outcomes.