Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches

Jakub Cervený, Jan van Ours, Martin van Tuijl

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sending-o of a player on the goal-scoring rates
in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherEconomics
Number of pages27
Volume2016-031
Publication statusPublished - 22 Aug 2016

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume2016-031

Fingerprint

Scoring
Football
Tournament
Hazard rate

Keywords

  • assocation football
  • goal-scoring
  • red card
  • world cup foorball matches

Cite this

Cervený, J., van Ours, J., & van Tuijl, M. (2016). Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2016-031). Tilburg: Economics.
Cervený, Jakub ; van Ours, Jan ; van Tuijl, Martin. / Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches. Tilburg : Economics, 2016. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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Cervený, J, van Ours, J & van Tuijl, M 2016 'Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 2016-031, Economics, Tilburg.

Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches. / Cervený, Jakub; van Ours, Jan; van Tuijl, Martin.

Tilburg : Economics, 2016. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2016-031).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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AU - van Tuijl, Martin

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N2 - We examine the effect of the sending-o of a player on the goal-scoring ratesin FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.

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Cervený J, van Ours J, van Tuijl M. Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches. Tilburg: Economics. 2016 Aug 22. (CentER Discussion Paper).