Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches

Jakub Cervený, Jan van Ours, Martin van Tuijl

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We examine the effect of the sending-o of a player on the goal-scoring rates
in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
Number of pages27
Publication statusPublished - 22 Aug 2016

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper


  • assocation football
  • goal-scoring
  • red card
  • world cup foorball matches


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