Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches

J. Cervený, J.C. van Ours, Martin van Tuijl

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)883–903
JournalEmpirical Economics: A quarterly journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies
Volume55
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2018

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match
Scoring
Hazard Rate
Tournament
Football

Keywords

  • association football
  • Goal-scoring
  • Red card
  • World Cup football matches

Cite this

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Effects of a Red Card on Goal-Scoring in World Cup Football Matches. / Cervený, J.; van Ours, J.C.; van Tuijl, Martin.

In: Empirical Economics: A quarterly journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vol. 55, No. 2, 09.2018, p. 883–903.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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