Effects of a red card on goal-scoring in World Cup football matches

J. Cervený, J.C. van Ours, Martin van Tuijl

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)


We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)883–903
JournalEmpirical Economics
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2018


  • association football
  • Goal-scoring
  • Red card
  • World Cup football matches


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