We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.
|Journal||Empirical Economics: A quarterly journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies|
|Publication status||Published - Sep 2018|
- association football
- Red card
- World Cup football matches
Cervený, J., van Ours, J. C., & van Tuijl, M. (2018). Effects of a red card on goal-scoring in World Cup football matches. Empirical Economics: A quarterly journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, 55(2), 883–903. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1287-5