Effects of a red card on goal-scoring in World Cup football matches

J. Cervený; J.C. van Ours; Martin van Tuijl

doi:10.1007/s00181-017-1287-5

Effects of a red card on goal-scoring in World Cup football matches

J. Cervený, J.C. van Ours, Martin van Tuijl

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	883–903
Journal	Empirical Economics
Volume	55
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1287-5
Publication status	Published - Sept 2018

Keywords

association football
Goal-scoring
Red card
World Cup football matches

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10.1007/s00181-017-1287-5

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abstract = "We examine the effect of the sending-off of a player on the goal-scoring rates in FIFA World Cup matches in tournaments from 1998 to 2014. We use a hazard rate framework in which the effect of a red card is modeled as a shift in the goal-scoring rate. A red card may harm the team that receives a red card and may be beneficial for their opponent. Indeed, we find that the goal-scoring rate of the sanctioned team goes down, while the goal-scoring rate of the non-sanctioned team goes up.",

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Effects of a red card on goal-scoring in World Cup football matches

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Keywords

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