Essays on model averaging and political economics

W. Wang

Research output: ThesisDoctoral Thesis

473 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple sources of uncertainty generated from model specification, estimation, and measurement choices. It examines the effects of different growth theories taking into account the measurement problem in the growth regression. Chapter 3 addresses the issue of prediction under model uncertainty, and proposes a weighted average least squares (WALS) prediction procedure that is not conditional on the selected model. Taking both model and error uncertainty into account, it also proposes an appropriate estimate of the variance of the WALS predictor. Chapter 4 focuses on the interplay among resource abundance, institutional quality, and economic growth in China, using two different measures of resource abundance. It employs a functional-coefficient model to capture the nonlinear interaction effect of institutional quality, and panel-data time-varying coefficient model to describe the dynamic effect of natural resources. Chapter 5 considers a dark side of fiscal decentralization. It models and empirically tests a dress-up contest caused by fiscal decentralization, and shows that the dress-up contest can lead to a social welfare loss.
Original languageEnglish
QualificationDoctor of Philosophy
Awarding Institution
  • Tilburg University
Supervisors/Advisors
  • Magnus, J.R., Promotor
Award date8 Nov 2013
Place of PublicationTilburg
Publisher
Print ISBNs9789056683696
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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Model averaging
Political economics
Fiscal decentralization
Uncertainty
Resources
Prediction
China
Least squares
Contests
Institutional quality
Coefficients
Growth regressions
Econometrics
Interaction effects
Dynamic effects
Natural resources
Growth theory
Model uncertainty
Institutional economics
Model specification

Cite this

Wang, W. (2013). Essays on model averaging and political economics. Tilburg: CentER, Center for Economic Research.
Wang, W.. / Essays on model averaging and political economics. Tilburg : CentER, Center for Economic Research, 2013. 168 p.
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title = "Essays on model averaging and political economics",
abstract = "This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple sources of uncertainty generated from model specification, estimation, and measurement choices. It examines the effects of different growth theories taking into account the measurement problem in the growth regression. Chapter 3 addresses the issue of prediction under model uncertainty, and proposes a weighted average least squares (WALS) prediction procedure that is not conditional on the selected model. Taking both model and error uncertainty into account, it also proposes an appropriate estimate of the variance of the WALS predictor. Chapter 4 focuses on the interplay among resource abundance, institutional quality, and economic growth in China, using two different measures of resource abundance. It employs a functional-coefficient model to capture the nonlinear interaction effect of institutional quality, and panel-data time-varying coefficient model to describe the dynamic effect of natural resources. Chapter 5 considers a dark side of fiscal decentralization. It models and empirically tests a dress-up contest caused by fiscal decentralization, and shows that the dress-up contest can lead to a social welfare loss.",
author = "W. Wang",
year = "2013",
language = "English",
isbn = "9789056683696",
series = "CentER Dissertation Series",
publisher = "CentER, Center for Economic Research",
school = "Tilburg University",

}

Wang, W 2013, 'Essays on model averaging and political economics', Doctor of Philosophy, Tilburg University, Tilburg.

Essays on model averaging and political economics. / Wang, W.

Tilburg : CentER, Center for Economic Research, 2013. 168 p.

Research output: ThesisDoctoral Thesis

TY - THES

T1 - Essays on model averaging and political economics

AU - Wang, W.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple sources of uncertainty generated from model specification, estimation, and measurement choices. It examines the effects of different growth theories taking into account the measurement problem in the growth regression. Chapter 3 addresses the issue of prediction under model uncertainty, and proposes a weighted average least squares (WALS) prediction procedure that is not conditional on the selected model. Taking both model and error uncertainty into account, it also proposes an appropriate estimate of the variance of the WALS predictor. Chapter 4 focuses on the interplay among resource abundance, institutional quality, and economic growth in China, using two different measures of resource abundance. It employs a functional-coefficient model to capture the nonlinear interaction effect of institutional quality, and panel-data time-varying coefficient model to describe the dynamic effect of natural resources. Chapter 5 considers a dark side of fiscal decentralization. It models and empirically tests a dress-up contest caused by fiscal decentralization, and shows that the dress-up contest can lead to a social welfare loss.

AB - This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple sources of uncertainty generated from model specification, estimation, and measurement choices. It examines the effects of different growth theories taking into account the measurement problem in the growth regression. Chapter 3 addresses the issue of prediction under model uncertainty, and proposes a weighted average least squares (WALS) prediction procedure that is not conditional on the selected model. Taking both model and error uncertainty into account, it also proposes an appropriate estimate of the variance of the WALS predictor. Chapter 4 focuses on the interplay among resource abundance, institutional quality, and economic growth in China, using two different measures of resource abundance. It employs a functional-coefficient model to capture the nonlinear interaction effect of institutional quality, and panel-data time-varying coefficient model to describe the dynamic effect of natural resources. Chapter 5 considers a dark side of fiscal decentralization. It models and empirically tests a dress-up contest caused by fiscal decentralization, and shows that the dress-up contest can lead to a social welfare loss.

M3 - Doctoral Thesis

SN - 9789056683696

T3 - CentER Dissertation Series

PB - CentER, Center for Economic Research

CY - Tilburg

ER -

Wang W. Essays on model averaging and political economics. Tilburg: CentER, Center for Economic Research, 2013. 168 p. (CentER Dissertation Series).