Extrapolation bias and the predictability of stock returns by price-scaled variables

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Using survey data on expectations of stock returns, we recursively estimate the degree of extrapolative weighting in investors' beliefs (DOX). In an extrapolation framework, DOX determines the relative weight investors place on recent-versus-distant returns. DOX varies considerably over time. The ability of price-scaled variables to predict the year-ahead equity premium is contingent on DOX. High price-scaled variables are followed by lower returns only when DOX is high. Our findings support extrapolation-based theories of the stock market and the interpretation of price-scaled variables as mispricing proxies. Our results help answer a critical question: when will an overvalued asset experience a correction?

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4345-4397
JournalThe Review of Financial Studies
Volume31
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2018

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Extrapolation
Predictability of stock returns
Investors
Survey data
Equity premium
Stock market
Assets
Stock returns
Mispricing
Weighting
Relative weight

Cite this

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abstract = "Using survey data on expectations of stock returns, we recursively estimate the degree of extrapolative weighting in investors' beliefs (DOX). In an extrapolation framework, DOX determines the relative weight investors place on recent-versus-distant returns. DOX varies considerably over time. The ability of price-scaled variables to predict the year-ahead equity premium is contingent on DOX. High price-scaled variables are followed by lower returns only when DOX is high. Our findings support extrapolation-based theories of the stock market and the interpretation of price-scaled variables as mispricing proxies. Our results help answer a critical question: when will an overvalued asset experience a correction?",
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Extrapolation bias and the predictability of stock returns by price-scaled variables. / Cassella, Stefano; Gulen, H.

In: The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 31, No. 11, 11.2018, p. 4345-4397.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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