Financial problems and debt as predictive factors of recidivism

This study aimed to examine the unique predictive validity of debt regarding recidivism and what elements are specifically predictive. This was done based on a Dutch sample of 250 people on probation using an explorative research tool, the Finances, Debt, and Offending Scale (FDOS). Cox survival regression and receiver operating characteristics analyses were conducted on the total FDOS and its individual items as predictors and diverse recidivism criteria. The average follow-up duration was 5.41 years. The results show that debt moderately predicts recidivism (adjusted for other predictors). The FDOS significantly predicted recidivism on all three levels of severity, and regarding the type of crime, it predicted recidivism in property and drug-related crime. Earlier debt and probation officers’ indications of whether finances are criminogenic were especially predictive. These insights may help frontline service providers better understand the role of finances in recidivism, measure financial problems in risk assessment, and select interventions.