Flu Shots, Mammogram, and the Perception of Probabilities

K.G. Carman, P. Kooreman

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We study individuals’ decisions to decline or accept preventive health care interventions such as flu shots and mammograms. In particular, we analyze the role of perceptions of the effectiveness of the intervention, by eliciting individuals' subjective probabilities of sickness and survival, with and without the interventions. Respondents appear to be aware of some of the qualitative relationships between risk factors and probabilities. However, they have very poor perceptions of the absolute probability levels as reported in the epidemiological literature. Perceptions are less accurate if a respondent is female and has no college degree, and deteriorate after age 50. Perceived probabilities significantly affect the subsequent take-up rate of flu shots and mammograms.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
Volume03/2010 - 014
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Publication series

NameNetspar Discussion Paper
Volume03/2010 - 014


  • Preventive Health Care
  • Probability Perceptions


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