Forward guidance and macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis

Jeffrey Campbell, Jonas Fisher, Alejandro Justiniano, Leonardo Melosi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientific

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be attributed entirely to Delphic forward guidance. However a large fraction of futures rates' variability on announcement days remains unexplained, leaving open the possibility that the FOMC has successfully communicated Odyssean guidance. We then examine whether the FOMC used Odyssean guidance to improve macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. To this end we use an estimated medium-scale New Keynesian model to perform a counterfactual experiment for the period 2009q1{2014q4, in which we assume the FOMC did not employ any Odyssean guidance and instead followed its reaction function from before the crisis as closely as possible while respecting the effective lower bound. We find that a purely rule-based policy would have delivered a shallower recession and kept inflation closer to target in the years immediately following the crisis than FOMC forward guidance did in practice. However starting toward the end of 2011, after the Fed's introduction of "calendar-based" communications, the FOMC's Odyssean guidance appears to have boosted real activity and moved inflation closer to target. We show that our results do not reflect Del Negro, Giannoni, and Patterson (2015)'s forward guidance puzzle.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationNBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016
EditorsM. Eichenbaum, J.A. Parker
Place of PublicationChicago
PublisherUniversity of Chicago Press
Pages283-357
Volume31
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Publication series

NameNBER Macroeconomics Annual
Volume31

Fingerprint

Macroeconomics
Guidance
Financial crisis
Announcement
Inflation
Real activity
Calendar
New Keynesian model
Communication
Private sector
Recession
Experiment
Reaction function
Rule-based
Private information
Federal funds
Lower bounds
End use

Keywords

  • monetary policy
  • business cycles
  • Great Recession
  • counterfactual policy analysis

Cite this

Campbell, J., Fisher, J., Justiniano, A., & Melosi, L. (2017). Forward guidance and macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. In M. Eichenbaum, & J. A. Parker (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016 (Vol. 31, pp. 283-357). (NBER Macroeconomics Annual; Vol. 31). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Campbell, Jeffrey ; Fisher, Jonas ; Justiniano, Alejandro ; Melosi, Leonardo. / Forward guidance and macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016. editor / M. Eichenbaum ; J.A. Parker. Vol. 31 Chicago : University of Chicago Press, 2017. pp. 283-357 (NBER Macroeconomics Annual).
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Campbell, J, Fisher, J, Justiniano, A & Melosi, L 2017, Forward guidance and macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. in M Eichenbaum & JA Parker (eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016. vol. 31, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol. 31, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 283-357.

Forward guidance and macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. / Campbell, Jeffrey; Fisher, Jonas; Justiniano, Alejandro ; Melosi, Leonardo.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016. ed. / M. Eichenbaum; J.A. Parker. Vol. 31 Chicago : University of Chicago Press, 2017. p. 283-357 (NBER Macroeconomics Annual; Vol. 31).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientific

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AB - This paper studies the effects of FOMC forward guidance. We begin by using high frequency identification and direct measures of FOMC private information to show that puzzling responses of private sector forecasts to movements in federal funds futures rates on FOMC announcement days can be attributed entirely to Delphic forward guidance. However a large fraction of futures rates' variability on announcement days remains unexplained, leaving open the possibility that the FOMC has successfully communicated Odyssean guidance. We then examine whether the FOMC used Odyssean guidance to improve macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. To this end we use an estimated medium-scale New Keynesian model to perform a counterfactual experiment for the period 2009q1{2014q4, in which we assume the FOMC did not employ any Odyssean guidance and instead followed its reaction function from before the crisis as closely as possible while respecting the effective lower bound. We find that a purely rule-based policy would have delivered a shallower recession and kept inflation closer to target in the years immediately following the crisis than FOMC forward guidance did in practice. However starting toward the end of 2011, after the Fed's introduction of "calendar-based" communications, the FOMC's Odyssean guidance appears to have boosted real activity and moved inflation closer to target. We show that our results do not reflect Del Negro, Giannoni, and Patterson (2015)'s forward guidance puzzle.

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Campbell J, Fisher J, Justiniano A, Melosi L. Forward guidance and macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. In Eichenbaum M, Parker JA, editors, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016. Vol. 31. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 2017. p. 283-357. (NBER Macroeconomics Annual).