Globalization and the global environment

Four quantitative scenarios

A Lejour*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

This article presents a simulation of four quantitative scenarios using the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan. The scenarios are constructed to study the effects of globalization on transport and the environment. They contain different assumptions on the degree of globalization, technical progress, migration and energy policies. WorldScan focuses on long-term economic growth, trade and specialization patterns. It quantifies the economic content of the scenarios and the volume growth of energy and emissions between 1995 and 2050. The scenario outcomes show that emission growth quadruples with high economic growth without any energy-efficient technologies and environmental legislation. However, in an ecological scenario which combines energy-efficient technologies, environmental legislation and modest economic growth, global emissions hardly increase.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)9-40
Number of pages32
JournalTransportation planning and technology
Volume26
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2003
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • globalization
  • transport
  • environment
  • scenarios
  • emissions

Cite this

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Globalization and the global environment : Four quantitative scenarios. / Lejour, A.

In: Transportation planning and technology, Vol. 26, No. 1, 02.2003, p. 9-40.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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T2 - Four quantitative scenarios

AU - Lejour, A

PY - 2003/2

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N2 - This article presents a simulation of four quantitative scenarios using the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan. The scenarios are constructed to study the effects of globalization on transport and the environment. They contain different assumptions on the degree of globalization, technical progress, migration and energy policies. WorldScan focuses on long-term economic growth, trade and specialization patterns. It quantifies the economic content of the scenarios and the volume growth of energy and emissions between 1995 and 2050. The scenario outcomes show that emission growth quadruples with high economic growth without any energy-efficient technologies and environmental legislation. However, in an ecological scenario which combines energy-efficient technologies, environmental legislation and modest economic growth, global emissions hardly increase.

AB - This article presents a simulation of four quantitative scenarios using the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan. The scenarios are constructed to study the effects of globalization on transport and the environment. They contain different assumptions on the degree of globalization, technical progress, migration and energy policies. WorldScan focuses on long-term economic growth, trade and specialization patterns. It quantifies the economic content of the scenarios and the volume growth of energy and emissions between 1995 and 2050. The scenario outcomes show that emission growth quadruples with high economic growth without any energy-efficient technologies and environmental legislation. However, in an ecological scenario which combines energy-efficient technologies, environmental legislation and modest economic growth, global emissions hardly increase.

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KW - transport

KW - environment

KW - scenarios

KW - emissions

U2 - 10.1080/03081060309911

DO - 10.1080/03081060309911

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