Grazing the Commons

Global Carbon Emissions Forever?

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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Abstract

This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long- term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, exible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per- capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually de- cline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compen- sate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherFinance
Volume2011-020
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume2011-020

Fingerprint

China
Carbon emissions
Grazing
Carbon dioxide emissions
Scenarios
Carbon
Income
Gross domestic product
Industrial sector
Reversal
Growth model
Economic growth
Estimator
Scale effect
Income effect

Keywords

  • CO2 Emissions
  • Environmental Kuznets Curve
  • Panel Data
  • (Semi)parametric Estimation

Cite this

Melenberg, B., Vollebergh, H. R. J., & Dijkgraaf, E. (2011). Grazing the Commons: Global Carbon Emissions Forever? (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2011-020). Tilburg: Finance.
Melenberg, B. ; Vollebergh, H.R.J. ; Dijkgraaf, E. / Grazing the Commons : Global Carbon Emissions Forever?. Tilburg : Finance, 2011. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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abstract = "This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long- term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, exible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per- capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually de- cline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compen- sate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.",
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Melenberg, B, Vollebergh, HRJ & Dijkgraaf, E 2011 'Grazing the Commons: Global Carbon Emissions Forever?' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 2011-020, Finance, Tilburg.

Grazing the Commons : Global Carbon Emissions Forever? / Melenberg, B.; Vollebergh, H.R.J.; Dijkgraaf, E.

Tilburg : Finance, 2011. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2011-020).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

TY - UNPB

T1 - Grazing the Commons

T2 - Global Carbon Emissions Forever?

AU - Melenberg, B.

AU - Vollebergh, H.R.J.

AU - Dijkgraaf, E.

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long- term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, exible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per- capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually de- cline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compen- sate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.

AB - This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long- term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, exible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per- capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually de- cline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compen- sate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.

KW - CO2 Emissions

KW - Environmental Kuznets Curve

KW - Panel Data

KW - (Semi)parametric Estimation

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VL - 2011-020

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CY - Tilburg

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Melenberg B, Vollebergh HRJ, Dijkgraaf E. Grazing the Commons: Global Carbon Emissions Forever? Tilburg: Finance. 2011. (CentER Discussion Paper).