@techreport{b7dac5eeb446491289252ea204a2bca5,

title = "Hierarchical Estimation as Basis for Hierarchical Forecasting",

abstract = "In inventory management, hierarchical forecasting (HF) is a hot issue : families of items are formed for which total demand is forecasted; total forecast then is broken up to produce forecasts for the individual items.Since HF is a complicated procedure, analytical results are hard to obtain; consequently, most literature is based on simulations and case studies.This paper succeeds in following a more theoretical approach by simplifying the problem : we consider estimation instead of forecasting.So, from a random sample we estimate both total demand and the fraction of this total that individual items take; multiplying these two quantities gives a new estimate of individual demand.Then our research question is: can aggregation of items, followed by fractioning, lead to more accurate estimates of individual demand?Thirdly, a more practical situation is investigated by means of simulation.",

keywords = "hierarchical forecasting, aggregation, top-down approach",

author = "L.W.G. Strijbosch and R.M.J. Heuts and J.J.A. Moors",

note = "Subsequently published in IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 2008 (rt) Pagination: 15",

year = "2006",

language = "English",

volume = "2006-86",

series = "CentER Discussion Paper",

publisher = "Operations research",

type = "WorkingPaper",

institution = "Operations research",

}