Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Igor Grossmann; Amanda A. Rotella; Cendri Hutcherson; Konstantyn Sharpinskyi; Michael E. W. Varnum; Sebastian K. Achter; Mandeep Dhami; Xinqi Evie Guo; Mane R. Kara-Yakoubian; David Mandel; Louis Raes; Louis Tay; Aymeric Vie; Lisa Wagner; Matus Adamkovic; Arash Arami; Patricia Arriaga; Kasun Bandara; Gabriel Banik; Frantisek Bartos; Ernest Baskin; Christoph Bergmeir; Michal K. Bialek; Caroline T. Borsting; Dillon M. Browne; Eugene Caruso; Rong Chen; Bin-Tzong J. Chie; William N. Chopik; Robert Collins; Chin Wen G. Cong; Lucian Conway; Matthew V. Davis; Martin A. Day; Nathan D. Dhaliwal; Justin Durham; Martyna T. Dziekan; Christian Elbaek; Eric Shuman; Marharyta Fabrykant; Mustafa T. Firat; Geoffrey A. Fong; Jeremy M. Frimer; Jonathan B. Gallegos; Simon Goldberg; Anton Gollwitzer; Julia Goyal; Lorenz D. Graf-Vlachy; Scott Gronlund; Sebastian Hafenbraedl; Andree J. Hartanto; Matthew J. Hirshberg; Matthew Hornsey; Piers D. L. Howe; Anoosha Izadi; Bastian Jaeger; Pavol Kacmar; Yeun Joon Kim; Ruslan G. Krenzler; Daniel Lannin; Hung-Wen Lin; Nigel Mantou Lou; Verity Y. Q. W. Lua; Aaron L. Lukaszewski; Albert R. Ly; Christopher Madan; Maximilian M. Maier; Nadyanna S. Majeed; David A. March; Abigail Marsh; Michal Misiak; Kristian Ove R. M. Myrseth; Jaime Napan; Jonathan Nicholas; Konstantinos Nikolopoulos; Tobias Otterbring; Mariola Paruzel-Czachura; Shiva Pauer; John Protzko; Quentin Raffaelli; Ivan Ropovik; Robert M. Ross; Yefim Roth; Espen Roysamb; Landon Schnabel; Astrid Schuetz; Matthias Seifert; A. T. Sevincer; Garrick T. Sherman; Otto Simonsson; Ming-Chien Sung; Chung-Ching Tai; Thomas Talhelm; Bethany A. Teachman; Philip E. Tetlock; Dimitrios Thomakos; Dwight C. K. Tse; Oliver J. Twardus; Joshua M. Tybur; Lyle Ungar; Daan Vandermeulen; Leighton Vaughan Williams; Hrag A. Vosgerichian; Qi Wang; Ke Wang; Mark E. Whiting; Conny E. Wollbrant; Tao Yang; Kumar Yogeeswaran; Sangsuk Yoon; Ventura R. Alves; Jessica R. Andrews-Hanna; Paul A. Bloom; Anthony Boyles; Loo Charis; Mingyeong Choi; Sean Darling-Hammond; Z. E. Ferguson; Cheryl R. Kaiser; Simon T. Karg; Alberto Lopez Ortega; Lori Mahoney; Melvin S. Marsh; Marcellin F. R. C. Martinie; Eli K. Michaels; Philip Millroth; Jeanean B. Naqvi; Weiting Ng; Robb B. Rutledge; Peter Slattery; Adam H. Smiley; Oliver Strijbis; Daniel Sznycer; Eli Tsukayama; Austin van Loon; Jan G. Voelkel; Margaux N. A. Wienk; Tom Wilkening

doi:10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Igor Grossmann^*, Amanda A. Rotella, Cendri Hutcherson, Konstantyn Sharpinskyi, Michael E. W. Varnum, Sebastian K. Achter, Mandeep Dhami, Xinqi Evie Guo, Mane R. Kara-Yakoubian, David Mandel, Louis Raes, Louis Tay, Aymeric Vie, Lisa Wagner, Matus Adamkovic, Arash Arami, Patricia Arriaga, Kasun Bandara, Gabriel Banik, Frantisek BartosErnest Baskin, Christoph Bergmeir, Michal K. Bialek, Caroline T. Borsting, Dillon M. Browne, Eugene Caruso, Rong Chen, Bin-Tzong J. Chie, William N. Chopik, Robert Collins, Chin Wen G. Cong, Lucian Conway, Matthew V. Davis, Martin A. Day, Nathan D. Dhaliwal, Justin Durham, Martyna T. Dziekan, Christian Elbaek, Eric Shuman, Marharyta Fabrykant, Mustafa T. Firat, Geoffrey A. Fong, Jeremy M. Frimer, Jonathan B. Gallegos, Simon Goldberg, Anton Gollwitzer, Julia Goyal, Lorenz D. Graf-Vlachy, Scott Gronlund, Sebastian Hafenbraedl, Andree J. Hartanto, Matthew J. Hirshberg, Matthew Hornsey, Piers D. L. Howe, Anoosha Izadi, Bastian Jaeger, Pavol Kacmar, Yeun Joon Kim, Ruslan G. Krenzler, Daniel Lannin, Hung-Wen Lin, Nigel Mantou Lou, Verity Y. Q. W. Lua, Aaron L. Lukaszewski, Albert R. Ly, Christopher Madan, Maximilian M. Maier, Nadyanna S. Majeed, David A. March, Abigail Marsh, Michal Misiak, Kristian Ove R. M. Myrseth, Jaime Napan, Jonathan Nicholas, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Tobias Otterbring, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Shiva Pauer, John Protzko, Quentin Raffaelli, Ivan Ropovik, Robert M. Ross, Yefim Roth, Espen Roysamb, Landon Schnabel, Astrid Schuetz, Matthias Seifert, A. T. Sevincer, Garrick T. Sherman, Otto Simonsson, Ming-Chien Sung, Chung-Ching Tai, Thomas Talhelm, Bethany A. Teachman, Philip E. Tetlock, Dimitrios Thomakos, Dwight C. K. Tse, Oliver J. Twardus, Joshua M. Tybur, Lyle Ungar, Daan Vandermeulen, Leighton Vaughan Williams, Hrag A. Vosgerichian, Qi Wang, Ke Wang, Mark E. Whiting, Conny E. Wollbrant, Tao Yang, Kumar Yogeeswaran, Sangsuk Yoon, Ventura R. Alves, Jessica R. Andrews-Hanna, Paul A. Bloom, Anthony Boyles, Loo Charis, Mingyeong Choi, Sean Darling-Hammond, Z. E. Ferguson, Cheryl R. Kaiser, Simon T. Karg, Alberto Lopez Ortega, Lori Mahoney, Melvin S. Marsh, Marcellin F. R. C. Martinie, Eli K. Michaels, Philip Millroth, Jeanean B. Naqvi, Weiting Ng, Robb B. Rutledge, Peter Slattery, Adam H. Smiley, Oliver Strijbis, Daniel Sznycer, Eli Tsukayama, Austin van Loon, Jan G. Voelkel, Margaux N. A. Wienk, Tom Wilkening

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

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Abstract

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	484-501
Journal	Nature Human Behaviour
Volume	7
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
Publication status	Published - 2023

Keywords

IMPLICIT
ATTITUDES

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10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

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Grossmann, I., Rotella, A. A., Hutcherson, C., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. E. W., Achter, S. K., Dhami, M., Guo, X. E., Kara-Yakoubian, M. R., Mandel, D., Raes, L., Tay, L., Vie, A., Wagner, L., Adamkovic, M., Arami, A., Arriaga, P., Bandara, K., Banik, G., ... Wilkening, T. (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(4), 484-501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

@article{c14f4a4ab10546b390f7fef031ea445e,

title = "Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change",

abstract = "How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.",

keywords = "IMPLICIT, ATTITUDES",

author = "Igor Grossmann and Rotella, {Amanda A.} and Cendri Hutcherson and Konstantyn Sharpinskyi and Varnum, {Michael E. W.} and Achter, {Sebastian K.} and Mandeep Dhami and Guo, {Xinqi Evie} and Kara-Yakoubian, {Mane R.} and David Mandel and Louis Raes and Louis Tay and Aymeric Vie and Lisa Wagner and Matus Adamkovic and Arash Arami and Patricia Arriaga and Kasun Bandara and Gabriel Banik and Frantisek Bartos and Ernest Baskin and Christoph Bergmeir and Bialek, {Michal K.} and Borsting, {Caroline T.} and Browne, {Dillon M.} and Eugene Caruso and Rong Chen and Chie, {Bin-Tzong J.} and Chopik, {William N.} and Robert Collins and Cong, {Chin Wen G.} and Lucian Conway and Davis, {Matthew V.} and Day, {Martin A.} and Dhaliwal, {Nathan D.} and Justin Durham and Dziekan, {Martyna T.} and Christian Elbaek and Eric Shuman and Marharyta Fabrykant and Firat, {Mustafa T.} and Fong, {Geoffrey A.} and Frimer, {Jeremy M.} and Gallegos, {Jonathan B.} and Simon Goldberg and Anton Gollwitzer and Julia Goyal and Graf-Vlachy, {Lorenz D.} and Scott Gronlund and Sebastian Hafenbraedl and Hartanto, {Andree J.} and Hirshberg, {Matthew J.} and Matthew Hornsey and Howe, {Piers D. L.} and Anoosha Izadi and Bastian Jaeger and Pavol Kacmar and Kim, {Yeun Joon} and Krenzler, {Ruslan G.} and Daniel Lannin and Hung-Wen Lin and Lou, {Nigel Mantou} and Lua, {Verity Y. Q. W.} and Lukaszewski, {Aaron L.} and Ly, {Albert R.} and Christopher Madan and Maier, {Maximilian M.} and Majeed, {Nadyanna S.} and March, {David A.} and Abigail Marsh and Michal Misiak and Myrseth, {Kristian Ove R. M.} and Jaime Napan and Jonathan Nicholas and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Tobias Otterbring and Mariola Paruzel-Czachura and Shiva Pauer and John Protzko and Quentin Raffaelli and Ivan Ropovik and Ross, {Robert M.} and Yefim Roth and Espen Roysamb and Landon Schnabel and Astrid Schuetz and Matthias Seifert and Sevincer, {A. T.} and Sherman, {Garrick T.} and Otto Simonsson and Ming-Chien Sung and Chung-Ching Tai and Thomas Talhelm and Teachman, {Bethany A.} and Tetlock, {Philip E.} and Dimitrios Thomakos and Tse, {Dwight C. K.} and Twardus, {Oliver J.} and Tybur, {Joshua M.} and Lyle Ungar and Daan Vandermeulen and {Vaughan Williams}, Leighton and Vosgerichian, {Hrag A.} and Qi Wang and Ke Wang and Whiting, {Mark E.} and Wollbrant, {Conny E.} and Tao Yang and Kumar Yogeeswaran and Sangsuk Yoon and Alves, {Ventura R.} and Andrews-Hanna, {Jessica R.} and Bloom, {Paul A.} and Anthony Boyles and Loo Charis and Mingyeong Choi and Sean Darling-Hammond and Ferguson, {Z. E.} and Kaiser, {Cheryl R.} and Karg, {Simon T.} and Ortega, {Alberto Lopez} and Lori Mahoney and Marsh, {Melvin S.} and Martinie, {Marcellin F. R. C.} and Michaels, {Eli K.} and Philip Millroth and Naqvi, {Jeanean B.} and Weiting Ng and Rutledge, {Robb B.} and Peter Slattery and Smiley, {Adam H.} and Oliver Strijbis and Daniel Sznycer and Eli Tsukayama and {van Loon}, Austin and Voelkel, {Jan G.} and Wienk, {Margaux N. A.} and Tom Wilkening",

note = "This programme of research was supported by the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (M. Fabrykant), John Templeton Foundation grant no. 62260 (I.G. and P.E.T.), Kega 079UK-4/2021 (P.K.), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci{\'o}n Espa{\~n}a grants no. PID2019-111512RB-I00-HMDM and no. HDL-HS-280218 (A.A.), etc.",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1",

language = "English",

volume = "7",

pages = "484--501",

journal = "Nature Human Behaviour",

issn = "2397-3374",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "4",

}

Grossmann, I, Rotella, AA, Hutcherson, C, Sharpinskyi, K, Varnum, MEW, Achter, SK, Dhami, M, Guo, XE, Kara-Yakoubian, MR, Mandel, D, Raes, L, Tay, L, Vie, A, Wagner, L, Adamkovic, M, Arami, A, Arriaga, P, Bandara, K, Banik, G, Bartos, F, Baskin, E, Bergmeir, C, Bialek, MK, Borsting, CT, Browne, DM, Caruso, E, Chen, R, Chie, B-TJ, Chopik, WN, Collins, R, Cong, CWG, Conway, L, Davis, MV, Day, MA, Dhaliwal, ND, Durham, J, Dziekan, MT, Elbaek, C, Shuman, E, Fabrykant, M, Firat, MT, Fong, GA, Frimer, JM, Gallegos, JB, Goldberg, S, Gollwitzer, A, Goyal, J, Graf-Vlachy, LD, Gronlund, S, Hafenbraedl, S, Hartanto, AJ, Hirshberg, MJ, Hornsey, M, Howe, PDL, Izadi, A, Jaeger, B, Kacmar, P, Kim, YJ, Krenzler, RG, Lannin, D, Lin, H-W, Lou, NM, Lua, VYQW, Lukaszewski, AL, Ly, AR, Madan, C, Maier, MM, Majeed, NS, March, DA, Marsh, A, Misiak, M, Myrseth, KORM, Napan, J, Nicholas, J, Nikolopoulos, K, Otterbring, T, Paruzel-Czachura, M, Pauer, S, Protzko, J, Raffaelli, Q, Ropovik, I, Ross, RM, Roth, Y, Roysamb, E, Schnabel, L, Schuetz, A, Seifert, M, Sevincer, AT, Sherman, GT, Simonsson, O, Sung, M-C, Tai, C-C, Talhelm, T, Teachman, BA, Tetlock, PE, Thomakos, D, Tse, DCK, Twardus, OJ, Tybur, JM, Ungar, L, Vandermeulen, D, Vaughan Williams, L, Vosgerichian, HA, Wang, Q, Wang, K, Whiting, ME, Wollbrant, CE, Yang, T, Yogeeswaran, K, Yoon, S, Alves, VR, Andrews-Hanna, JR, Bloom, PA, Boyles, A, Charis, L, Choi, M, Darling-Hammond, S, Ferguson, ZE, Kaiser, CR, Karg, ST, Ortega, AL, Mahoney, L, Marsh, MS, Martinie, MFRC, Michaels, EK, Millroth, P, Naqvi, JB, Ng, W, Rutledge, RB, Slattery, P, Smiley, AH, Strijbis, O, Sznycer, D, Tsukayama, E, van Loon, A, Voelkel, JG, Wienk, MNA & Wilkening, T 2023, 'Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change', Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 484-501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

TY - JOUR

T1 - Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

AU - Grossmann, Igor

AU - Rotella, Amanda A.

AU - Hutcherson, Cendri

AU - Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn

AU - Varnum, Michael E. W.

AU - Achter, Sebastian K.

AU - Dhami, Mandeep

AU - Guo, Xinqi Evie

AU - Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R.

AU - Mandel, David

AU - Raes, Louis

AU - Tay, Louis

AU - Vie, Aymeric

AU - Wagner, Lisa

AU - Adamkovic, Matus

AU - Arami, Arash

AU - Arriaga, Patricia

AU - Bandara, Kasun

AU - Banik, Gabriel

AU - Bartos, Frantisek

AU - Baskin, Ernest

AU - Bergmeir, Christoph

AU - Bialek, Michal K.

AU - Borsting, Caroline T.

AU - Browne, Dillon M.

AU - Caruso, Eugene

AU - Chen, Rong

AU - Chie, Bin-Tzong J.

AU - Chopik, William N.

AU - Collins, Robert

AU - Cong, Chin Wen G.

AU - Conway, Lucian

AU - Davis, Matthew V.

AU - Day, Martin A.

AU - Dhaliwal, Nathan D.

AU - Durham, Justin

AU - Dziekan, Martyna T.

AU - Elbaek, Christian

AU - Shuman, Eric

AU - Fabrykant, Marharyta

AU - Firat, Mustafa T.

AU - Fong, Geoffrey A.

AU - Frimer, Jeremy M.

AU - Gallegos, Jonathan B.

AU - Goldberg, Simon

AU - Gollwitzer, Anton

AU - Goyal, Julia

AU - Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz D.

AU - Gronlund, Scott

AU - Hafenbraedl, Sebastian

AU - Hartanto, Andree J.

AU - Hirshberg, Matthew J.

AU - Hornsey, Matthew

AU - Howe, Piers D. L.

AU - Izadi, Anoosha

AU - Jaeger, Bastian

AU - Kacmar, Pavol

AU - Kim, Yeun Joon

AU - Krenzler, Ruslan G.

AU - Lannin, Daniel

AU - Lin, Hung-Wen

AU - Lou, Nigel Mantou

AU - Lua, Verity Y. Q. W.

AU - Lukaszewski, Aaron L.

AU - Ly, Albert R.

AU - Madan, Christopher

AU - Maier, Maximilian M.

AU - Majeed, Nadyanna S.

AU - March, David A.

AU - Marsh, Abigail

AU - Misiak, Michal

AU - Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. M.

AU - Napan, Jaime

AU - Nicholas, Jonathan

AU - Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

AU - Otterbring, Tobias

AU - Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola

AU - Pauer, Shiva

AU - Protzko, John

AU - Raffaelli, Quentin

AU - Ropovik, Ivan

AU - Ross, Robert M.

AU - Roth, Yefim

AU - Roysamb, Espen

AU - Schnabel, Landon

AU - Schuetz, Astrid

AU - Seifert, Matthias

AU - Sevincer, A. T.

AU - Sherman, Garrick T.

AU - Simonsson, Otto

AU - Sung, Ming-Chien

AU - Tai, Chung-Ching

AU - Talhelm, Thomas

AU - Teachman, Bethany A.

AU - Tetlock, Philip E.

AU - Thomakos, Dimitrios

AU - Tse, Dwight C. K.

AU - Twardus, Oliver J.

AU - Tybur, Joshua M.

AU - Ungar, Lyle

AU - Vandermeulen, Daan

AU - Vaughan Williams, Leighton

AU - Vosgerichian, Hrag A.

AU - Wang, Qi

AU - Wang, Ke

AU - Whiting, Mark E.

AU - Wollbrant, Conny E.

AU - Yang, Tao

AU - Yogeeswaran, Kumar

AU - Yoon, Sangsuk

AU - Alves, Ventura R.

AU - Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.

AU - Bloom, Paul A.

AU - Boyles, Anthony

AU - Charis, Loo

AU - Choi, Mingyeong

AU - Darling-Hammond, Sean

AU - Ferguson, Z. E.

AU - Kaiser, Cheryl R.

AU - Karg, Simon T.

AU - Ortega, Alberto Lopez

AU - Mahoney, Lori

AU - Marsh, Melvin S.

AU - Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C.

AU - Michaels, Eli K.

AU - Millroth, Philip

AU - Naqvi, Jeanean B.

AU - Ng, Weiting

AU - Rutledge, Robb B.

AU - Slattery, Peter

AU - Smiley, Adam H.

AU - Strijbis, Oliver

AU - Sznycer, Daniel

AU - Tsukayama, Eli

AU - van Loon, Austin

AU - Voelkel, Jan G.

AU - Wienk, Margaux N. A.

AU - Wilkening, Tom

N1 - This programme of research was supported by the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (M. Fabrykant), John Templeton Foundation grant no. 62260 (I.G. and P.E.T.), Kega 079UK-4/2021 (P.K.), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación España grants no. PID2019-111512RB-I00-HMDM and no. HDL-HS-280218 (A.A.), etc.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

AB - How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

KW - IMPLICIT

KW - ATTITUDES

UR - https://osf.io/6wgbj/registrations

UR - https://github.com/grossmania/Forecasting-Tournament

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85147648888&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

DO - 10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1

M3 - Article

C2 - 36759585

SN - 2397-3374

VL - 7

SP - 484

EP - 501

JO - Nature Human Behaviour

JF - Nature Human Behaviour

IS - 4

ER -

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

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