Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting

M.F. Tesfaselassie, E. Schaling, S.C.W. Eijffinger

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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Abstract

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework.We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has e®ects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank.For a wide range of possible initial beliefs about the unknown parameter, the dynamically optimal rule is in general more activist, in the sense of responding aggressively to the state of the economy, than the myopic rule for small to moderate deviations of the state variable from its target.On the other hand, for large deviations, the optimal policy is less activist than the myopic and the certainty equivalence policies.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherMacroeconomics
Number of pages38
Volume2006-88
Publication statusPublished - 2006

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume2006-88

Fingerprint

Inflation targeting
Term structure
Term structure of interest rates
Deviation
Central bank
Inflation uncertainty
Inflation forecasts
Persistence
Interest rate rules
Targeting
Certainty equivalence
Active learning
State variable
Optimal policy
Large deviations

Keywords

  • Learning
  • Rational Expectations
  • Separation Principle
  • Term Structure of Interest Rates

Cite this

Tesfaselassie, M. F., Schaling, E., & Eijffinger, S. C. W. (2006). Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2006-88). Tilburg: Macroeconomics.
Tesfaselassie, M.F. ; Schaling, E. ; Eijffinger, S.C.W. / Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting. Tilburg : Macroeconomics, 2006. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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abstract = "In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework.We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has e{\circledR}ects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank.For a wide range of possible initial beliefs about the unknown parameter, the dynamically optimal rule is in general more activist, in the sense of responding aggressively to the state of the economy, than the myopic rule for small to moderate deviations of the state variable from its target.On the other hand, for large deviations, the optimal policy is less activist than the myopic and the certainty equivalence policies.",
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Tesfaselassie, MF, Schaling, E & Eijffinger, SCW 2006 'Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 2006-88, Macroeconomics, Tilburg.

Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting. / Tesfaselassie, M.F.; Schaling, E.; Eijffinger, S.C.W.

Tilburg : Macroeconomics, 2006. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2006-88).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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T1 - Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting

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AB - In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework.We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has e®ects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank.For a wide range of possible initial beliefs about the unknown parameter, the dynamically optimal rule is in general more activist, in the sense of responding aggressively to the state of the economy, than the myopic rule for small to moderate deviations of the state variable from its target.On the other hand, for large deviations, the optimal policy is less activist than the myopic and the certainty equivalence policies.

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KW - Separation Principle

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Tesfaselassie MF, Schaling E, Eijffinger SCW. Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting. Tilburg: Macroeconomics. 2006. (CentER Discussion Paper).