Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy

E. Schaling

    Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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    Abstract

    In this paper we analyze disinflation in two environments.One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has to learn the private sector inflation forecasting rule.Here, the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter.With imperfect knowledge, results depend on the learning scheme that is employed.A novel feature of the passive learning policy - compared to the central bank s disinflation policy under perfect knowledge - is that the degree of monetary accommodation (the extent to which the central bank accommodates private sector inflation expectations) is no longer constant across the disinflation, but becomes state-dependent.This means that the central bank's behaviour changes during the disinflation as it collects more information.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationTilburg
    PublisherMacroeconomics
    Number of pages37
    Volume2003-74
    Publication statusPublished - 2003

    Publication series

    NameCentER Discussion Paper
    Volume2003-74

    Fingerprint

    Central bank
    Optimal monetary policy
    Inflation
    Disinflation
    Private sector
    Inflation expectations
    Kalman filter
    Inflation forecasting
    Behavior change
    Least squares learning
    Policy learning
    Accommodation

    Keywords

    • inflation
    • monetary policy
    • learning
    • rational expectations
    • optimal control

    Cite this

    Schaling, E. (2003). Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2003-74). Tilburg: Macroeconomics.
    Schaling, E. / Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy. Tilburg : Macroeconomics, 2003. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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    abstract = "In this paper we analyze disinflation in two environments.One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has to learn the private sector inflation forecasting rule.Here, the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter.With imperfect knowledge, results depend on the learning scheme that is employed.A novel feature of the passive learning policy - compared to the central bank s disinflation policy under perfect knowledge - is that the degree of monetary accommodation (the extent to which the central bank accommodates private sector inflation expectations) is no longer constant across the disinflation, but becomes state-dependent.This means that the central bank's behaviour changes during the disinflation as it collects more information.",
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    Schaling, E 2003 'Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 2003-74, Macroeconomics, Tilburg.

    Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy. / Schaling, E.

    Tilburg : Macroeconomics, 2003. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2003-74).

    Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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    AB - In this paper we analyze disinflation in two environments.One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has to learn the private sector inflation forecasting rule.Here, the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter.With imperfect knowledge, results depend on the learning scheme that is employed.A novel feature of the passive learning policy - compared to the central bank s disinflation policy under perfect knowledge - is that the degree of monetary accommodation (the extent to which the central bank accommodates private sector inflation expectations) is no longer constant across the disinflation, but becomes state-dependent.This means that the central bank's behaviour changes during the disinflation as it collects more information.

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    Schaling E. Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy. Tilburg: Macroeconomics. 2003. (CentER Discussion Paper).