Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data?

F.J.G.M. Klaassen

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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Abstract

The random walk is often used to model exchange rates. According to the Lucas critique, however, policy shifts may lead to breaks in the trend of exchange rates and hence to long swings. We use a Markov regime-switching model to allow for such swings and we reject the random walk in favor of the regime-switching model. Earlier papers report this result too, but the authors are concerned about the reliability of their Wald based tests in the strongly nonlinear regime-switching model. We show that these tests are indeed not very robust. Hence, we use a likelihood ratio test for which the (non-standard) critical values have been computed recently.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherEconometrics
Number of pages27
Volume1999-08
Publication statusPublished - 1999

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume1999-08

Fingerprint

Random walk
Regime-switching model
Exchange rates
Likelihood ratio test
Markov regime switching model
Critical value
Lucas critique

Keywords

  • Markov regime-switching
  • testing
  • forecasting
  • exchange rates

Cite this

Klaassen, F. J. G. M. (1999). Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data? (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 1999-08). Tilburg: Econometrics.
Klaassen, F.J.G.M. / Long Swings in Exchange Rates : Are They Really in the Data?. Tilburg : Econometrics, 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper).
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Klaassen, FJGM 1999 'Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data?' CentER Discussion Paper, vol. 1999-08, Econometrics, Tilburg.

Long Swings in Exchange Rates : Are They Really in the Data? / Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

Tilburg : Econometrics, 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 1999-08).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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Klaassen FJGM. Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data? Tilburg: Econometrics. 1999. (CentER Discussion Paper).