Mandatory activation of welfare recipients: Less time, less crime?

This paper investigates the effect of a mandatory activation program on crime. Although the effects of ALMPs on labor market outcomes are often assessed, theorized effects on crime are seldom analyzed. We exploit age-based policy variation and estimate a regression discontinuity model, using individual-level administrative data on the entire Dutch population around a 27-year-old age threshold. The results show a 12% reduction in crime among non-natives, a relatively vulnerable group. Our findings suggest that crime is mainly reduced on weekdays, which points towards incapacitation as the underlying causal mechanism. Due to program participation, individuals have less time to commit crime.