Model uncertainty in growth empirics

Research output: ThesisDoctoral ThesisScientific

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Abstract

This thesis applies so-called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to three different economic questions substantially exposed to model uncertainty. Chapter 2 addresses a major issue of modern development economics: the analysis of the determinants of pro-poor growth (PPG), which seeks to combine high growth rates with poverty reduction. Vietnam is an interesting example for such an analysis because this country is a showcase for effective policies of PPG. However, it is not clear which factors have contributed to which extent to Vietnam’s PPG. Chapter 3 analyzes whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has been beneficial for productivity growth in Latin America (LA). FDI has surged in LA since the mid 1990s. BMA allows accounting for the major shifts in the regional composition of these inflows, for the varying types of and motives for FDI, and for differing local conditions within LA. Finally, Chapter 4 goes a step further and investigates not only the robustness of different types of growth determinants. It also introduces Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS) as a new model averaging technique, which is theoretically and practically superior to BMA. By comparing the estimation results of WALS and BMA and conducting various robustness checks, we analyze the importance of various 'fundamental' growth determinants such as geography, institutions, fractionalization and culture or religion.
Original languageEnglish
QualificationDoctor of Philosophy
Awarding Institution
  • Tilburg University
Supervisors/Advisors
  • Magnus, J.R., Promotor
  • Boone, Jan, Promotor
Award date31 Oct 2008
Place of PublicationTilburg
Publisher
Print ISBNs9789056682200
Publication statusPublished - 2008

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Model uncertainty
Bayesian model averaging
Empirics
Latin America
Pro-poor growth
Foreign direct investment
Least squares
Robustness
Geography
Fractionalization
Development economics
Economics
Factors
Poverty reduction
Productivity growth
Model averaging

Cite this

Prüfer, P. (2008). Model uncertainty in growth empirics. Tilburg: CentER, Center for Economic Research.
Prüfer, P.. / Model uncertainty in growth empirics. Tilburg : CentER, Center for Economic Research, 2008. 155 p.
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Prüfer, P 2008, 'Model uncertainty in growth empirics', Doctor of Philosophy, Tilburg University, Tilburg.

Model uncertainty in growth empirics. / Prüfer, P.

Tilburg : CentER, Center for Economic Research, 2008. 155 p.

Research output: ThesisDoctoral ThesisScientific

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AB - This thesis applies so-called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to three different economic questions substantially exposed to model uncertainty. Chapter 2 addresses a major issue of modern development economics: the analysis of the determinants of pro-poor growth (PPG), which seeks to combine high growth rates with poverty reduction. Vietnam is an interesting example for such an analysis because this country is a showcase for effective policies of PPG. However, it is not clear which factors have contributed to which extent to Vietnam’s PPG. Chapter 3 analyzes whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has been beneficial for productivity growth in Latin America (LA). FDI has surged in LA since the mid 1990s. BMA allows accounting for the major shifts in the regional composition of these inflows, for the varying types of and motives for FDI, and for differing local conditions within LA. Finally, Chapter 4 goes a step further and investigates not only the robustness of different types of growth determinants. It also introduces Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS) as a new model averaging technique, which is theoretically and practically superior to BMA. By comparing the estimation results of WALS and BMA and conducting various robustness checks, we analyze the importance of various 'fundamental' growth determinants such as geography, institutions, fractionalization and culture or religion.

M3 - Doctoral Thesis

SN - 9789056682200

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PB - CentER, Center for Economic Research

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Prüfer P. Model uncertainty in growth empirics. Tilburg: CentER, Center for Economic Research, 2008. 155 p. (CentER Dissertation Series).