Modeling the future burden of stroke in the Netherlands - Impact of aging, smoking, and hypertension

JN Struijs, MLL van Genugten, SMAA Evers, AJHA Ament, C.A. Baan, GAM van den Bos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Background and Purpose - In the near future, the number of stroke patients and their related healthcare costs are expected to rise. The purpose of this study was to estimate this expected increase in stroke patients in the Netherlands. We sought to determine what the future developments in the number of stroke patients due to demographic changes and trends in the prevalence of smoking and hypertension in terms of the prevalence, incidence, and potential years of life lost might be.

Methods - A dynamic, multistate life table was used, which combined demographic projections and existing stroke morbidity and mortality data. It projected future changes in the number of stroke patients in several scenarios for the Dutch population for the period 2000 to 2020. The model calculated the annual number of new patients by age and sex by using incidence rates, defined by age, sex, and major risk factors. The change in the annual number of stroke patients is the result of incident cases minus mortality numbers.

Results - Demographic changes in the population suggest an increase of 27% in number of stroke patients per 1000 in 2020 compared with 2000. Extrapolating past trends in the prevalence of smoking behavior, hypertension, and stroke incidence resulted in an increase of 4%.

Conclusions - The number of stroke patients in the Netherlands will rise continuously until the year 2020. Our study demonstrates that a large part of this increase in the number of patients is an inevitable consequence of the aging of the population.

LanguageEnglish
Pages1648-1655
Number of pages8
JournalStroke. Journal of the American Heart Association
Volume36
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2005
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • epidemiology
  • cigarette smoking
  • hypertension
  • scenario analyses
  • stroke
  • OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY-DISEASE
  • CORONARY HEART-DISEASE
  • MIDDLE-AGED MEN
  • RISK-FACTORS
  • BLOOD-PRESSURE
  • SUBARACHNOID HEMORRHAGE
  • CIGARETTE-SMOKING
  • CASE-FATALITY
  • FOLLOW-UP
  • MORTALITY

Cite this

Struijs, JN ; van Genugten, MLL ; Evers, SMAA ; Ament, AJHA ; Baan, C.A. ; van den Bos, GAM. / Modeling the future burden of stroke in the Netherlands - Impact of aging, smoking, and hypertension. In: Stroke. Journal of the American Heart Association. 2005 ; Vol. 36, No. 8. pp. 1648-1655
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abstract = "Background and Purpose - In the near future, the number of stroke patients and their related healthcare costs are expected to rise. The purpose of this study was to estimate this expected increase in stroke patients in the Netherlands. We sought to determine what the future developments in the number of stroke patients due to demographic changes and trends in the prevalence of smoking and hypertension in terms of the prevalence, incidence, and potential years of life lost might be.Methods - A dynamic, multistate life table was used, which combined demographic projections and existing stroke morbidity and mortality data. It projected future changes in the number of stroke patients in several scenarios for the Dutch population for the period 2000 to 2020. The model calculated the annual number of new patients by age and sex by using incidence rates, defined by age, sex, and major risk factors. The change in the annual number of stroke patients is the result of incident cases minus mortality numbers.Results - Demographic changes in the population suggest an increase of 27{\%} in number of stroke patients per 1000 in 2020 compared with 2000. Extrapolating past trends in the prevalence of smoking behavior, hypertension, and stroke incidence resulted in an increase of 4{\%}.Conclusions - The number of stroke patients in the Netherlands will rise continuously until the year 2020. Our study demonstrates that a large part of this increase in the number of patients is an inevitable consequence of the aging of the population.",
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author = "JN Struijs and {van Genugten}, MLL and SMAA Evers and AJHA Ament and C.A. Baan and {van den Bos}, GAM",
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Modeling the future burden of stroke in the Netherlands - Impact of aging, smoking, and hypertension. / Struijs, JN; van Genugten, MLL; Evers, SMAA; Ament, AJHA; Baan, C.A.; van den Bos, GAM.

In: Stroke. Journal of the American Heart Association, Vol. 36, No. 8, 08.2005, p. 1648-1655.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling the future burden of stroke in the Netherlands - Impact of aging, smoking, and hypertension

AU - Struijs,JN

AU - van Genugten,MLL

AU - Evers,SMAA

AU - Ament,AJHA

AU - Baan,C.A.

AU - van den Bos,GAM

PY - 2005/8

Y1 - 2005/8

N2 - Background and Purpose - In the near future, the number of stroke patients and their related healthcare costs are expected to rise. The purpose of this study was to estimate this expected increase in stroke patients in the Netherlands. We sought to determine what the future developments in the number of stroke patients due to demographic changes and trends in the prevalence of smoking and hypertension in terms of the prevalence, incidence, and potential years of life lost might be.Methods - A dynamic, multistate life table was used, which combined demographic projections and existing stroke morbidity and mortality data. It projected future changes in the number of stroke patients in several scenarios for the Dutch population for the period 2000 to 2020. The model calculated the annual number of new patients by age and sex by using incidence rates, defined by age, sex, and major risk factors. The change in the annual number of stroke patients is the result of incident cases minus mortality numbers.Results - Demographic changes in the population suggest an increase of 27% in number of stroke patients per 1000 in 2020 compared with 2000. Extrapolating past trends in the prevalence of smoking behavior, hypertension, and stroke incidence resulted in an increase of 4%.Conclusions - The number of stroke patients in the Netherlands will rise continuously until the year 2020. Our study demonstrates that a large part of this increase in the number of patients is an inevitable consequence of the aging of the population.

AB - Background and Purpose - In the near future, the number of stroke patients and their related healthcare costs are expected to rise. The purpose of this study was to estimate this expected increase in stroke patients in the Netherlands. We sought to determine what the future developments in the number of stroke patients due to demographic changes and trends in the prevalence of smoking and hypertension in terms of the prevalence, incidence, and potential years of life lost might be.Methods - A dynamic, multistate life table was used, which combined demographic projections and existing stroke morbidity and mortality data. It projected future changes in the number of stroke patients in several scenarios for the Dutch population for the period 2000 to 2020. The model calculated the annual number of new patients by age and sex by using incidence rates, defined by age, sex, and major risk factors. The change in the annual number of stroke patients is the result of incident cases minus mortality numbers.Results - Demographic changes in the population suggest an increase of 27% in number of stroke patients per 1000 in 2020 compared with 2000. Extrapolating past trends in the prevalence of smoking behavior, hypertension, and stroke incidence resulted in an increase of 4%.Conclusions - The number of stroke patients in the Netherlands will rise continuously until the year 2020. Our study demonstrates that a large part of this increase in the number of patients is an inevitable consequence of the aging of the population.

KW - epidemiology

KW - cigarette smoking

KW - hypertension

KW - scenario analyses

KW - stroke

KW - OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY-DISEASE

KW - CORONARY HEART-DISEASE

KW - MIDDLE-AGED MEN

KW - RISK-FACTORS

KW - BLOOD-PRESSURE

KW - SUBARACHNOID HEMORRHAGE

KW - CIGARETTE-SMOKING

KW - CASE-FATALITY

KW - FOLLOW-UP

KW - MORTALITY

U2 - 10.1161/01.STR.0000173221.37568.d2

DO - 10.1161/01.STR.0000173221.37568.d2

M3 - Article

VL - 36

SP - 1648

EP - 1655

JO - Stroke. Journal of the American Heart Association

T2 - Stroke. Journal of the American Heart Association

JF - Stroke. Journal of the American Heart Association

SN - 0039-2499

IS - 8

ER -