Navigating Uncertainty: The Dynamics of Convergence, Divergence, and Leadership in Collaborative Innovation

Collaborative innovation is increasingly employed to address grand societal challenges, including Regional Energy Transition (RET). However, managing the high levels of uncertainty, trial-and-error learning, and asymmetries inherent in such processes remains challenging. Stakeholders must balance divergence (exploration of ideas) with convergence (implementation into collective action) to enhance innovation capacity. Despite extensive research on drivers, barriers, and best practices, the dynamic complexity of collaborative innovation is underexplored, highlighting the need for a systems perspective. We seek to address this gap by using rich qualitative data from a longitudinal case study to develop a causal loop model of processual dynamics in a collaborative RET initiative. Findings highlight the critical role of balancing convergence and divergence in mitigating uncertainty and fostering collaboration. While convergence drives consensus and actionable outcomes, excessive focus on it exacerbates asymmetries, erodes trust, and undermines (organic) leadership. Conversely, unchecked divergence fosters creativity but risks decision paralysis. In such cases, hybrid leadership—combining the strengths of organic leaders and third-party facilitators—becomes essential to restore trust and achieve collaboration outcomes. Our study enriches the budding literature on collaborative innovation, establishes bridges between collaborative innovation and organizational studies, and offers insights for practitioners.