Abstract
We study the impact of (i) online engagement on the MeetUp platform and (ii) previous candidacies in local elections on the electoral prospects of the candidates in the 2012 online primaries of the Five Star Movement (FSM).
While previous research has produced mixed findings regarding the influence of extensive digital media use on intra-party democracy, our study addresses a critical research gap by examining how digital tools and previous candidacies shape the distribution of power within a political party.
Using data from the FSM's MeetUp galaxy, we derive the online network of party members and explore the relationship between their network centrality (taken to quantify higher levels of online engagement) and their result in the primary election. We hypothesise that higher network centrality correlates with better electoral performances, especially considering the emphasis the FSM put on grass-root online activism. We further control for the documented influence exerted on the voting process by the voting interface, with strong ballot order effects. We also look at whether candidates who ran in previous local elections (but lost) were advantaged due to name recognition.
Our results show that online activity had no correlation with electoral outcomes, with no differences between candidates who were or were not on MeetUp. Network centrality was also uncorrelated with the election outcome. On the contrary, the few candidates who ran for local office received a consistent advantage, which remains significant after controlling for the influence of the voting interface.
While we considered a single platform to quantify online activity and plan to extend our study to other arenas were the party's political discourse was articulated, our results suggest that online efforts were not rewarded, whereas party endorsements in the form of candidacies in local elections did play a part in orienting the vote.
While previous research has produced mixed findings regarding the influence of extensive digital media use on intra-party democracy, our study addresses a critical research gap by examining how digital tools and previous candidacies shape the distribution of power within a political party.
Using data from the FSM's MeetUp galaxy, we derive the online network of party members and explore the relationship between their network centrality (taken to quantify higher levels of online engagement) and their result in the primary election. We hypothesise that higher network centrality correlates with better electoral performances, especially considering the emphasis the FSM put on grass-root online activism. We further control for the documented influence exerted on the voting process by the voting interface, with strong ballot order effects. We also look at whether candidates who ran in previous local elections (but lost) were advantaged due to name recognition.
Our results show that online activity had no correlation with electoral outcomes, with no differences between candidates who were or were not on MeetUp. Network centrality was also uncorrelated with the election outcome. On the contrary, the few candidates who ran for local office received a consistent advantage, which remains significant after controlling for the influence of the voting interface.
While we considered a single platform to quantify online activity and plan to extend our study to other arenas were the party's political discourse was articulated, our results suggest that online efforts were not rewarded, whereas party endorsements in the form of candidacies in local elections did play a part in orienting the vote.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Publication status | Published - 2 Sept 2023 |
| Event | ODISSEI congres - Utrecht Duration: 2 Nov 2023 → … |
Conference
| Conference | ODISSEI congres |
|---|---|
| City | Utrecht |
| Period | 2/11/23 → … |