Predictive validity of risk assessments in juvenile offenders: Comparing the SAVRY, PCL:YV and YLS/CMI with unstructured clinical assessments

This study examined the validity and reliability of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), and the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) in a sample of Spanish adolescents with a community sanction (N = 105). Self-reported delinquency with a follow-up period of 1 year was used as the outcome measure. The predictive validity of the three measures was compared with the unstructured judgment of the juvenile’s probation officer and the self-appraisal of the juvenile. The three measures showed moderate effect sizes, ranging from area under the curve (AUC) = .75 (SAVRY) to AUC = .72 (PCL:YV), in predicting juvenile reoffending. The two unstructured judgments had no significant predictive validity whereas the SAVRY had significantly higher predictive validity compared with both unstructured judgments. Finally, SAVRY protective factor total scores and SAVRY summary risk ratings did not add incremental validity over SAVRY risk total scores. The high base rates of both violent (65.4%) and general reoffending (81.9%) underline the need for further risk assessment and management research with this population.
Keywords: adolescents, self-reported delinquency, risk assessment, protective factors, unstructured clinical judgment