Rally around the government or a populist response? How concerns about COVID-19 and emotional responses relate to institutional trust and support for right-wing populism

Recent studies have shown that the coronavirus pandemic not only temporarily increased support for incumbent politicians and trust in experts but also triggered an authoritarian response. Because the pandemic has significantly affected individuals’ goals, needs, and control over their lives, we expect that it has generated emotional reactions. In this article, we study how concerns about COVID-19 relate to institutional trust (trust in political institutions and experts) and a preference for populist right parties—directly and indirectly—via emotions. Our theoretical framework relies on the “rally around the flag” hypothesis, the cultural backlash theory, as well as appraisal theories of emotions. We analyze a novel data set collected as part of the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences Panel Survey for the Netherlands at the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic (October 2020). Our findings reveal that concerns about COVID-19 are positively related to institutional trust but unrelated to preferences for right-wing populism. The relationship between concerns about the coronavirus crisis and trust in political institutions is mediated via fear and sadness; these emotions also explain opposition to right-wing populist parties. We interpret our findings in relation to research on the rally around the flag effect, right-wing populism, and emotions. We discuss the implications of our results in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and other “rally”-inducing events.