Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity

Ashley Metz*, Paul Hartley

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Scenario development is a core component of foresight practitioners’ and long-term planners’ work. Practices play a critical role in shaping and reifying taken-for-granted structures and ideas, and as such deserve attention. In this paper, we conceptualize scenario building as a practice of valuation. Doing so calls attention to constructive elements and highlights the importance of studying the practice and the field, not only to derive best practices, but to understand how they work and to what potential consequences. We illustrate these ideas with a scenario development consulting project for an international infrastructure company in which we alter the method in three main places: scanning, interim scenario work and scenario development. We demonstrate how conscious attention to the practice can drive subtle shifts in practice and how a ‘valuation lens’ encourages reflexivity about the use of practices.
Original languageEnglish
Article number120027
Number of pages15
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume155
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 2020

Keywords

  • AGENCY
  • CONSTRUCTION
  • EVOLUTION
  • FIELD
  • FORESIGHT
  • FUTURE
  • MARKET
  • MODEL
  • RATIONALITY
  • Reflexivity
  • STRATEGY
  • Scenario as valuation
  • Scenario development
  • Scenario planning
  • Scenarios
  • Valuation

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