Statistical climate-change scenarios

J.R. Magnus, B. Melenberg, C.H.M. Muris, M. Wild

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

We report on climate projections generated by a simple model of climate change. The model captures the effects of variations in surface solar radiation, using information over the period 1959–2002 available from observational records from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), as well as increases in greenhouse gases on surface temperature. The model performs well with respect to observational data, and is simple enough to admit a rigorous statistical analysis. This allows us to quantify the uncertainty associated with estimated parameter values using observational data only. Our method immediately leads to estimates with associated confidence intervals, which can be translated into confidence intervals for climate projections. In particular, we construct probabilistic climate projections using standard scenarios for carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-18
JournalJournal of Environmental Statistics
Volume50
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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confidence interval
climate change
climate
sulfur dioxide
energy balance
solar radiation
statistical analysis
greenhouse gas
surface temperature
carbon dioxide
effect
method
parameter

Cite this

Magnus, J. R., Melenberg, B., Muris, C. H. M., & Wild, M. (2013). Statistical climate-change scenarios. Journal of Environmental Statistics, 50(4), 1-18.
Magnus, J.R. ; Melenberg, B. ; Muris, C.H.M. ; Wild, M. / Statistical climate-change scenarios. In: Journal of Environmental Statistics. 2013 ; Vol. 50, No. 4. pp. 1-18.
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Magnus, JR, Melenberg, B, Muris, CHM & Wild, M 2013, 'Statistical climate-change scenarios', Journal of Environmental Statistics, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 1-18.

Statistical climate-change scenarios. / Magnus, J.R.; Melenberg, B.; Muris, C.H.M.; Wild, M.

In: Journal of Environmental Statistics, Vol. 50, No. 4, 2013, p. 1-18.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

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AU - Magnus, J.R.

AU - Melenberg, B.

AU - Muris, C.H.M.

AU - Wild, M.

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N2 - We report on climate projections generated by a simple model of climate change. The model captures the effects of variations in surface solar radiation, using information over the period 1959–2002 available from observational records from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), as well as increases in greenhouse gases on surface temperature. The model performs well with respect to observational data, and is simple enough to admit a rigorous statistical analysis. This allows us to quantify the uncertainty associated with estimated parameter values using observational data only. Our method immediately leads to estimates with associated confidence intervals, which can be translated into confidence intervals for climate projections. In particular, we construct probabilistic climate projections using standard scenarios for carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions.

AB - We report on climate projections generated by a simple model of climate change. The model captures the effects of variations in surface solar radiation, using information over the period 1959–2002 available from observational records from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), as well as increases in greenhouse gases on surface temperature. The model performs well with respect to observational data, and is simple enough to admit a rigorous statistical analysis. This allows us to quantify the uncertainty associated with estimated parameter values using observational data only. Our method immediately leads to estimates with associated confidence intervals, which can be translated into confidence intervals for climate projections. In particular, we construct probabilistic climate projections using standard scenarios for carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions.

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SP - 1

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JO - Journal of Environmental Statistics

JF - Journal of Environmental Statistics

SN - 1945-1296

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