Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia

The thesis deals with structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting of key macroeconomic variables (real growth of GDP, inflation, exchange rate, and policy interest rate). The central part of the thesis (Chapters 2-4) consists of three chapters. Chapter 2 considers the structural DSGE model and its forecasting possibilities. Chapter 3 considers the dynamic factor model (DFM) and its forecasting possibilities. Finally, Chapter 4 compares these two popular forecasting approaches, and describes which modeling approach gives more accurate and reliable forecasting results.