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Testing for Multiple Change-Points in Macroeconometrics: an Empirical Guide and Recent Developments

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Abstract

We review recent developments in detecting and estimating multiple change-points in time series models with exogenous and endogenous regressors, panel data models, and factor models. This review differs from others in multiple ways: (1) it focuses on inference about the change-points in slope parameters, rather than in the mean of the dependent variable - the latter being common in the statistical literature; (2) it focuses on detecting - via sequential testing and other methods - multiple change-points, and only discusses one change-point when methods for multiple change-points are not available; (3) it is meant as a practitioner's guide for empirical macroeconomists first, and as a result, it focuses only on the methods derived under the most general assumptions relevant to macroeconomic applications.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherarXiv
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2025

Keywords

  • change-points
  • break-points
  • time series
  • panel data
  • factor models
  • sequential testing
  • information criteria
  • Lasso

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