The attractiveness of the EMU exchange rate stabilization program

One of the arguments for a monetary union is that it reduces the variability of exchange rates. This paper demonstrates that the welfare gain that EU countries can expect to gain from the move to a single currency is moderate. The gains from exchange rate stabilization are limited by imports of foreign consumption goods and borrowing by governments. Furthermore, exchange rate stabilization may imply a welfare loss as the removal of non-zero exchange rate expectations
deprives investors of the opportunity to speculate on expected-rate-of-return differentials. Numerical simulations suggest that the welfare gain from exchange rate stabilization for the average EU country is equivalent to a 0.9 percent rate of return on portfolio wealth.