The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises

The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness

S.C.W. Eijffinger, B.V.G. Goderis

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in countries with high domestic corporate short-term debt; (ii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high-quality institutions; iii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high external debt; and (iv) is less effective in countries with high capital account openness. We predict that monetary policy would have had the conventional supportive effect on the exchange rate during five of the crisis episodes in our sample, while it would have had the perverse effect during seven other episodes. For four episodes, we predict a statistically insignificant effect. Our results support the idea that the effect of monetary policy depends on its impact on fundamentals, as well as its credibility, as suggested in the recent theoretical literature. They also provide an explanation for the mixed findings in the empirical literature.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationTilburg
PublisherMacroeconomics
Number of pages35
Volume2007-18
Publication statusPublished - 2007

Publication series

NameCentER Discussion Paper
Volume2007-18

Fingerprint

Currency crises
Debt
Monetary policy
Exchange rates
Financial openness
External debt
Interest rates
Short-term debt
Credibility
Openness
Balance sheet effects
Capital account

Keywords

  • Currency Crises
  • Institutions
  • Monetary Policy
  • Short-Term Debt
  • External Debt
  • Capital Account Openness

Cite this

Eijffinger, S. C. W., & Goderis, B. V. G. (2007). The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises: The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2007-18). Tilburg: Macroeconomics.
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abstract = "This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in countries with high domestic corporate short-term debt; (ii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high-quality institutions; iii) is more credible and therefore more effective in countries with high external debt; and (iv) is less effective in countries with high capital account openness. We predict that monetary policy would have had the conventional supportive effect on the exchange rate during five of the crisis episodes in our sample, while it would have had the perverse effect during seven other episodes. For four episodes, we predict a statistically insignificant effect. Our results support the idea that the effect of monetary policy depends on its impact on fundamentals, as well as its credibility, as suggested in the recent theoretical literature. They also provide an explanation for the mixed findings in the empirical literature.",
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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises : The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness. / Eijffinger, S.C.W.; Goderis, B.V.G.

Tilburg : Macroeconomics, 2007. (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2007-18).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paperOther research output

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