The future of private-label markets: A global convergence approach

Private-label (PL) shares are characterized by considerable heterogeneity across both countries and categories, not only in their current level, but also in the rate at which they are growing. This creates ambiguity about their remaining growth potential. To offer insights into the likely long-run PL shares, we take a forward-looking perspective by means of a convergence model. We apply the model to two unique datasets that together span more than 50 countries, both emerging and developed, across more than 70 CPG categories. We find evidence of partial PL convergence: even though PL shares will become more similar, part of the currently observed heterogeneity will persist. The future evolution in two key marketing instruments, new-product introductions by both NB manufacturers and retailers and the NB-PL price gap, is found to play a substantial role in shaping the global PL landscape of the future. This impact is not uniform, however, but depends on the category, and varies with the retail, economic and cultural context. In addition, the long-run impact of both marketing drivers differs from what is currently observed, suggesting that managers should not adhere too strongly to earlier practices when planning for the future.