The impact of bank consolidation on credit supply and performance

Between 2009 and 2011, the Spanish banking system underwent a restructuring process based on consolidation of savings banks. The program’s design allows us to study how alternative forms of consolidation affect credit supply and financial stability. Compared to bank business groups, we find that bank mergers’ market power produces a contraction in credit supply, higher interest rates, but also a reduction in non-performing loans. We then estimate a structural model of credit demand and supply. We show that short-run welfare gains from improved financial stability outweigh losses from reduced credit supply, while small long-run cost efficiencies generate large welfare increases.