The impact of carbon footprinting aggregation on realizing emission reduction targets

A variety of activity-based methods exist for estimating the carbon footprint in transportation. For instance, the greenhouse gas protocol suggests a more aggregate estimation method than the Network for Transport and Environment (NTM) method. In this study, we implement a detailed estimation method based on NTM and different aggregate approaches for transportation carbon emissions in the dynamic lot sizing model. Analytical results show the limitations of aggregate models for both accurate estimation of real emissions and risks of compliance with carbon constraints (e.g., carbon caps). Extensive numerical experimentation shows that the magnitude of errors can be substantial. We provide insights under which limited conditions aggregate estimations can be used safely and when more detailed estimates are appropriate.